World War I: The Outbreak of War (Comprehensive Notes)

The outbreak of war

• Context: The outbreak of World War I in 1914, its Western and Eastern fronts, and how it became the world’s first global conflict.
• Visual cue: A large crowd in Trafalgar Square celebrating the declaration of war on Germany, 30 July 1914.
• Core questions the material asks you to consider:
  • Why would a murder in a Balkan town precipitate a continent-wide war?
  • Why was the Balkans a powder keg?
  • How did a local political murder escalate into a continental, then global, war?
  • Were there inevitable outcomes or did leaders miscalculate, act incompetently, or deliberately calculate for advantage?
• Key takeaway: The outbreak was not a single event but a cascade of actions, mobilisations, and promises of support that turned a regional crisis into a world war.

The assassination that triggered the crisis: Archduke Franz Ferdinand

• Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, assassinated on 28\ \text{June}\ 1914 in Sarajevo.
• The assassination set off a chain of events across Europe within six weeks that drew in the major powers.
• Significance of the date: The assassination occurred on the anniversary of two symbolic Balkan memories: the St. Vitus Day (Vidovdan) and the 1389 Battle of Kosovo, heightening nationalist feelings in the region.
• Franz Ferdinand’s background and plans: He was the heir since 1896; his father and grandfather’s lines influenced his position; his visit to Sarajevo in June 1914 was as Inspector-General of the Austro-Hungarian armed forces.
• Personal life detail (contextual, not strategic): He married Countess Sophie Chotek in a marriage considered morganatic—her social status was deemed too low for an empress-to-be. Franz Ferdinand agreed to this to marry Sophie; the marriage affected succession and social dynamics within the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
• Characteristics of the assassination plot:
  • A six-man group including Gavrilo Princip, connected to the Black Hand (a Serbian nationalist secret society).
  • The assassination was partly amateurish; one conspirator hesitated when the crowd was dense, another thought a policeman was acting, a third turned back, a fourth went home, a fifth’s bomb attempt injured an equerry, and Princip ultimately killed Franz Ferdinand and Sophie with two shots in quick succession.
• Culprit: Gavrilo Princip, an 18-year-old Serb nationalist from Bosnia; linked to Narodna Odbrana (National Defence) and the more extreme Ujedinjenje ili Smrt (Union of Death), also called the Black Hand.

The Balkans: a powder keg and the main theatre before the war

• Geography and historical context:
  • The Balkans lie in southeastern Europe; long under the Ottoman Empire’s influence, later described as the "sick man of Europe" due to decline.
  • By the early 20th century, new states emerged from former Ottoman territories: Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia-Herzegovina under Austrian administration since 1878.
  • The Balkans contained many Slavic populations seeking independence and national identity, creating friction with Austria-Hungary and Turkey.
• Major powers and interests in the Balkans:
  • Russia: Sought a warm-water port and a base in the Mediterranean beyond the Straits; Shared Slavic bonds with Russia’s fellow Slavs in the Balkans; wanted to support Slavic nationalism to advance broader geostrategic goals.
  • Austria-Hungary: Sought national survival and suppression of Slav nationalism; a multinational empire with many ethnic groups, including Slavs who desired independence; feared Serbian nationalism as a direct threat to imperial integrity.
  • The Ottoman Empire (Turkey): Aimed to survive and regain prestige; opposed Russian influence and Slav nationalism; ambivalent towards Austria because both opposed Slavic aspirations but both sought opportunities to suppress nationalist movements.
• Interplay of imperial aims:
  • Slav nationalism complicated the Austro-Hungarian Empire’s internal stability and threatened its control over its southern territories.
  • Russia’s interest in backing Slavs clashed with Austrian and Turkish imperial ambitions; Germany’s support for Austria-Turkey created a broader system of alliances.
• The Eastern Question: The Balkans as the central crisis point whose resolution would influence the balance of power across Europe.
• Important historical builds: The period after 1878 (Congress of Berlin) and the early 20th-century crises built a pattern of competition and alliance-building that would later become the battlefield for a Europe-wide conflict.

The rival positions in the Balkans (Source 2.2): quick snapshot

• Four principal players and their stances on Balkans matters:
  • Russia: Pro-Slavic support and aim for a warm-water port; willing to back Slav nationalism for strategic advantage.
  • Austria-Hungary: Aimed to suppress Slav nationalism and prevent Serbia from gaining power; risked war to maintain empire integrity.
  • Turkey: Sought to restore its position and suppress Slav influence; opposed Russian involvement; ambivalent toward Austrian aims.
  • Britain and other Great Powers: Mixed concerns in the Balkans but wary of growing German influence and the potential for wider war.
• The Balkans as a “powder keg”: The region was unstable due to competing nationalist projects, chaotic local rivalries, and the strategic interests of great powers.

The Balkan crisis and the Balkan Wars (1908–1913)

• 1908: Austria annexed Bosnia-Herzegovina, breaking the Congress of Berlin’s earlier arrangements; Russia protested but ultimately back down under German pressure, producing a humiliating setback for Russia.
• Consequences of the 1908 crisis:
  • Russia began a large-scale rearmament to deter German pressure and guarantee its credibility.
  • Austria-Hungary gained confidence that Germany would back it against Russia if needed; Slav nationalism intensified against Austrian rule.
  • Germany’s commitment to Austria became more pronounced, pulling Britain and France closer to Russia in some respects due to concerns about German expansion.
• 1911: Italy seized Libya as a sign of the decline of the Ottoman Empire, illustrating the empire’s shrinking regional influence.
• 1912–1913: The Balkan Wars reshaped the map:
  • First Balkan War (1912): Montenegro declared war on Turkey; Turkey fought Serbia, Greece, and Bulgaria; Turkish rule on the European mainland collapsed; Albania emerged from the peace in 1913.
  • Second Balkan War (1913): Bulgaria attacked Serbia and Greece; Turkey regained some territory; Romania gained Dobruja; Serbia doubled in size; Albania formed as a new state; Turkey largely expelled from Europe.
• Regional outcomes and strategic implications:
  • Serbia’s rising power and territorial expansion increased Austro-Hungarian fears and the desire among some Austrians to strike Serbia before it grew too strong.
  • The collapse of Turkish influence and the expansion of Serbian power created a changing political geography in the Balkans, setting a dangerous stage for a future clash among the great powers.
  • Russia’s strengthened posture and Serbia’s growing confidence made a Balkan crisis more likely to trigger a broader war.

The assassination and the immediate aftermath (Archduke Ferdinand’s death and its significance)

• The assassination was carried out by a Bosnian Serb nationalist with links to Serbian nationalist groups; the Black Hand played a role in coordinating the plot.
• The assassination created a direct confrontation between Austria-Hungary and Serbia, with Russia prepared to back Serbia and Germany prepared to back Austria.
• The event did not occur in a vacuum; it was the spark in a long-running powder keg of nationalist tensions and great-power rivalries.

The July Crisis: from assassination to declaration of war

• Vienna’s view: A war party within the Austrian government believed the survival of the Habsburg Empire depended on crushing Serbia before Slav nationalism could rise further. Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf, the Chief of the General Staff, was a key proponent of war and urged action against Serbia for years (25 separate urging instances between 1913 and June 1914).
• The German angle: The German leadership sought to avoid a two-front war but decided that a quick, decisive local action against Serbia was best if Russia did not intervene. This culminated in the so-called “blank cheque” from Germany on 6 July 1914, guaranteeing German support for Austria should war with Serbia occur.
• Austria’s ultimatum to Serbia (23 July 1914): A 10-point list of demands intended to be unacceptable to Serbia; failure to comply would justify Austria declaring war.
• The Russians and Sazonov (Foreign Minister of Russia): Russia signaled strong support for Serbia; warned that Russia would aid Serbia if attacked by Austria; in late July 1914, Russia mobilised in response to the Austrian ultimatum and the evolving crisis.
• Serbian response: Serbia accepted nine of the ten points (25 July 1914) but rejected points 5 and 6; this partial acceptance allowed Austria to claim Serbia’s non-compliance as a pretext for war.
• Mobilisation timeline and escalation:
  • 24 July: Russia begins partial mobilisation in support of Serbia.
  • 26 July: Russia begins its period of