Single-Parent Households and Children’s Educational Achievement: A State-Level Analysis

Introduction

• The study examines the relationship between the increase in single-parent households and children’s educational achievement at the population level.

• In the United States, the percentage of children living with single parents increased from 9% in the 1960s to 28% in 2012.

• Research indicates that children in single-parent households tend to score lower on educational achievement measures compared to those in two-parent households.

• Some researchers argue that the rise in single-parent families is a primary cause of school failure and other social problems.

• The study assesses whether changes in the percentage of children living with single parents were related to changes in children’s scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) between 1990 and 2011, using state-level data and statistical models with state and year fixed-effects.

Background

• Some studies suggest that single parenthood has negative consequences for children’s school performance at the aggregate or societal level.

• Multilevel modeling revealed that U.S. students performed more poorly on math and reading achievement tests in schools with high proportions of children from single-parent families.

• A cross-national study showed that single-parent family status was negatively associated with math and science achievement scores in nine out of 11 countries, with smaller achievement gaps in countries with more supportive social policies.

• Several studies have linked the rise in single parenthood since the 1960s to an increase in child poverty in the U.S., which may negatively affect children’s educational outcomes.

• Children in single-parent households have a lower standard of living, which affects school grades and test scores.

• Parents provide social capital and resources to children, and children with single parents may have less access to these resources.

• Household instability or “turbulence” in children’s lives is associated with poorer school performance and educational attainment.

• Selection effects may explain the association between family structure and children’s academic achievement, as poverty and certain parental traits can increase the risk of both single parenthood and academic failure.

• Researchers use fixed effects models to assess whether the links between family structure and child outcomes are causal or spurious, with mixed results.

• A review of studies using fixed effects models suggests that father absence may increase children’s antisocial behavior but may not affect cognitive outcomes and academic performance.

• Most reviewers conclude that a combination of selection and causal factors are responsible for the links between family structure and children’s well-being.

The Current Study

• The study examines associations between the percentage of children living in single- parent households and children’s test scores on the NAEP, focusing on math and reading scores in grades 4 and 8.

• State-level data are analyzed to determine if the increase in single parenthood in the United States since 1990 was associated with declines in children’s test scores in the general population.

• The study aims to answer the question, “Has the increase in single parenthood lowered the educational achievement of children in the U.S.?”

• Population-level data are less susceptible to selection effects than individual-level data, but may be subject to the ecological fallacy.

• If associations observed at the individual level are mainly due to the self-selection of troubled adults into single parenthood, then children’s aggregate-level test scores will not necessarily decline.

• A decline in children’s mean test scores concomitant with an increase in single parenthood would suggest a causal interpretation, assuming that relevant third variables are controlled.

Methods

• Data on children’s living arrangements between 1990–2011 came from the American Community Survey, the U.S. Decennial Census, and the Current Population Survey (CPS).

  • Children were classified into single-parent households if they lived with a mother or a father (either biological or adoptive) but not both.

  • Children in all households with two parents (two biological parents, two adoptive parents, one biological parent and a step-parent) served as a combined reference category.

  • Children were between the ages of 8 and 11 for the analysis of 4th grade achievement and between the ages of 12 and 15 for the analysis of 8th grade achievement.

• The study controlled for variables that might be causes of single parenthood as well as children’s academic achievement.

  • Percentage of children in each age group who were Black or Hispanic.

  • Percentage of mothers (of children in each age group) with high school degrees, with some college or postsecondary education, and with college degrees.

  • Percentage of children living below the federal poverty line.

Student Achievement Variables

• The NAEP surveys were congressionally mandated to track the academic skills of students over time, with the first national assessment occurring in 1969.

• The NAEP uses a multi-stage sampling method to select students for assessment.

• Approximately 3000 students per subject and per grade are assessed in each state.

• The National Assessment Governing Board oversees the construction of questions with input from teachers, researchers, measurement experts, policymakers and the general public.

• State level data includes test scores from public schools only.

• The study focused on mathematics and reading scores because these were available for the largest number of years.

• The NAEP mathematics survey was administered in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2011 for grades 4 and 8, with grade 8 also being tested in 1990.

• The NAEP reading survey was administered in 1998, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2011 for grades 4 and 8, with grade 4 also being tested in 1992 and 1994.

• State NAEP scores are available in two forms:

  • A mean score based on Item Response Theory (IRT), with individual scores ranging from 0 to 500.

  • A score based on achievement levels and involves the percentage of students in four groups: below basic proficiency, basic proficiency, proficient, and advanced proficiency.

Plan of Analysis

• The study used pooled time series regression analysis with fixed state and year effects to estimate the statistical models.

• State fixed effects control for all unmeasured state variables that are time invariant.

• Year fixed effects control for all period effects that affect all states similarly.

• The regression coefficients can be interpreted as the estimated effect of changes in the independent variables on changes in the dependent variables.

• The regression analyses involve four models:

  • The first model shows the association between changes in single parenthood and changes in state NAEP scores controlling for state and year fixed effects.

  • The second model included controls for the percentage of Black and Hispanic children.

  • The third model added controls for mothers’ education.

  • The fourth and final model included the percentage of children in poverty.

Results

Descriptive Trends

• Mean 4th grade math scores increased from 218 in 1992 to 240 in 2011.

• Mean 8th grade math scores increased from 263 in 1990 to 285 in 2011.

• Mean 4th grade reading scores increased modestly, rising from 215 to 220 overall.

• Mean 8th grade reading scores increased from 261 to 266 between 1998 and 2011.

• Between the early 1990s and 2011, the percentage of children at both grade levels scoring at the below basic level declined and the percentage of children scoring at the advanced level increased.

• The mean percentage of 4th grade children living with single parents increased from 23% in 1990 to 33% in 2011.

• The percentage of children living with neither parent also rose slightly during this period, from about 3% in the early 1990s to 4% in the late 2000’s.

• The percentage of Hispanic children increased substantially from 7 percent in the early 1990s to 15 percent in 2011.

• The percentage of mothers with college degrees increased from 18 percent to 32 percent.

• The percentage of children living in poverty fluctuated a good deal during this period, although it rose after the Great Recession in 2007.

• Children’s performance on the NAEP exams improved during the same period that the percentage of children living with single parents increased.

• Preliminary analysis revealed a high correlation of .71 (p < .001) between the percentage of children living with single parents and the percentage of Black children across all states and years.

Regression Analysis

• Hausman tests indicated that fixed effects models provided a better fit to the data than did random effects models.

• Preliminary analyses without fixed effects revealed that the percentage of children living with single parents was negatively associated with mean NAEP scores.

• When state fixed effects were added to the models, the percentage of children living with single parents and mean NAEP scores were positively associated.

• State and year fixed effects accounted for most of the variance in test scores.

• After accounting for the state and year fixed effects, the independent variables accounted for significant increments in variance for all of the mathematics outcomes (mean scores, % below basic, and % advanced) at both grade levels.

• The independent variables, however, did not account for significant increments in variance for the reading outcomes at either grade level.

• The association between the percentage of children with single parents and 4th grade math scores was negative but close to zero (−.051) and not statistically significant.

• A 1-point increase in the percentage of children living with neither parent was associated with a decline in test scores equivalent one-fourth of a point.

• The percentage of Black children was negatively and significantly associated with test scores, whereas the coefficient for the percentage of Hispanic children was not statistically significant.

• Increases in maternal educational attainment were linked with improvements in children’s test scores.

• States with high levels of child poverty tended to have higher mathematics test scores, controlling for family structure, race-ethnicity, and maternal education.

• The percentage of children living with single parents was not a significant predictor of the percentage of children scoring at a below basic level of proficiency on the NAEP mathematics test.

• The percentage of children living with single parents was negatively and significantly associated with 4th grade math achievement, but only with control variables in the models.

Alternative Specifications

• Weighting the data by state populations yielded results nearly identical to those reported in Tables 1–3.

• Including a series of state x time interaction terms in the models to control for state-level trends that may have been distinct from the national trend.

• Conducting analyses in which the percentage of children living in single-parent households was lagged by 1 through 5 years.

• Running the analyses with Washington D.C. excluded, but the results were nearly identical.

• Conducting new analysis with bootstrapped errors, and although the standard errors increased modestly, the results were essentially the same as those reported earlier.

• Creating a dummy variable for stepparent households that we were able to identify.

• Conducting additional analyses with a dummy variable for two-parent households in which parents were unmarried.

Discussion

• The percentage of children living with single parents in the United States has increased steadily in recent decades.

• Research consistently demonstrates that children living with single parents score lower on measures of academic ability and achievement than do children with two continuously married parents.

• The percentage of children living with single parents was not associated with children’s mathematics scores.

• Increases in single parenthood did not lower children’s aggregate-level school performance.

• The increase in single-parent households since 1990 reduced the percentage of children who scored at the top of the test score distributions (advanced NAEP levels).

• The average estimated effects of divorce on children’s standardized math and reading scores were statistically significant but weak.

• Changes in family structure have had only modest effects on child outcomes at the societal level.

• The increase in single-parent households does not appear to have affected children’s test scores appreciably.

• The percentage of children living without either parent was associated with some outcomes, such as the percentage of 8th grade students scoring at a below basic level of proficiency.

• The percentage of Black children was negatively associated with mean mathematics scores in the 4th and 8th grades.

• Increases in the educational attainment of mothers were associated positively with most of the educational outcomes.

Highlights

• We used the CPS, the decennial U.S. Census, and the American Community Survey for data on single-parent households, and the National Assessment of Educational Progress for data on children’s math and reading scores.

• We used regression models with state and year fixed effects to estimate the effects of changes in the percentage of children living with single parents on changes in children’s 4th and 8th grade test scores between 1990 and 2010.

• Single parenthood was not associated with mean mathematics and reading scores, although it was weakly but negatively associated with the percentage of children who scored at an “advanced” level of proficiency in mathematics.

• Increases in maternal education were generally related to improvements in children’s math scores.

The main issue is the relationship between the increase in single-parent households and children’s educational achievement at the population

Here are answers to your questions based on the text:

1. The main issue is the relationship between the increase in single-parent households and children’s educational achievement at the population level.

2. The central claim is that the increase in single parenthood since 1990 has not significantly lowered the educational achievement of children in the U.S., as measured by NAEP test scores.

3. The author assumes that NAEP scores are a valid measure of educational achievement and that state-level data can provide meaningful insights into this issue. Additionally, they assume that fixed effects models can adequately control for confounding variables.

4. The author presents data from the American Community Survey, U.S. Decennial Census, Current Population Survey (CPS), and the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) between 1990 and 2011. They use pooled time series regression analysis with fixed state and year effects.

5. Strengths: The study uses a rigorous statistical approach with fixed effects models to control for confounding variables. It also examines data at the population level, which reduces selection effects. The robustness checks, such as weighting the data by state populations and lagging the single-parent variable, strengthen the findings.

   • Weaknesses: The study is subject to the ecological fallacy, as associations observed at the aggregate level may not hold at the individual level. Also, while fixed effects models control for many factors, there may be unobserved variables that influence both family structure and educational outcomes.

6. Possible counterarguments include that the NAEP scores may not capture all aspects of educational achievement, or that the effects of single parenthood may be more nuanced and not fully reflected in aggregate test scores. Additionally, some might argue that the fixed effects models do not fully account for all relevant confounding variables.

7. The problems and arguments are important because of the ongoing debate about the effects of family structure on children’s well-being and educational outcomes. Understanding these relationships is crucial for informing social policies and interventions aimed at supporting children and families.