CRJU lecture 4 2.10.26

Terms:

  • causation

  • Units of analysis

  • Probabilistic causation

  • Ideographical causation

  • Nomothetic causation

  • Correlation

  • Necessary cause

  • Sufficient cause

  • Validity

  • Casual inference

  • Reliability

  • Validity

  • Panel studies

  • Retrospective research

  • Prospective research

  • Statistical conclusion validity

  • Internal validity

  • Construct validity

  • External validity

  • Bias

  • Generalizability

  • Temporal order

  • Units of analysis

  • Social artifacts

  • Causation

  • Ecological fallacy

  • Individualistic fallacy

  • Reductionism

  • Cross sectional studies

  • Descriptive research

  • Exploratory research

  • Longitudinal studies

  • Trend studies

  • Cohort studies

  • Scientific realism

Causation

  • the focus in explanatory research

Cause in social science is inherently probabilistic

-in criminal justice, this could mean that certain factors make criminal behavior more or less likely within groups of people

Idiographic causation

  • idiographic casual explanations are intended to explain one particular context or phenomenon

Nomothetic Causation

  • seeks to identify general laws and patterns that apply to may cases. Its utility power is determined by its applicability (accuracy) scope of application (generality)

Criteria for causality

  • To infer nomothetic causation, shadish, cook, and Campbell suggest examining

    • if two variables vary together they must be empirically correlated

    • the cause occurs before the effect

    • the empirical correlation between the cause and effect is not due to some other factor

    • it can not be a spurious relationship

Necessary and sufficient causes

  • within the probabilistic model there are two types of causes

    • a necessary cause represents a condition that must be present for the effect to occur

    • a sufficient cause represents a condition that will pretty much guarantee that the effect will occur if it is present

Validity and casual Inference

  • validity is the approximate truth of an inference

  • By saying something is valid we make a judgement about the extent to which relevant evidence supports that inference as being true or correct

Reliability versus Validity

  • reliability measures a methods consistency, and validity addresses it’s accuracy

  • 4 general categories of validity: statistical conclusion validity, internal validity, construct validity, external validity

Statistical conclusion validity

  • asks are changes in one variables related to changes in another?

    • corresponds with the first criterion for causality: empirical correlation between variables

Internal validity

  • IV threats can challenge casual statements about the observed covariation between two variables

    • an observed association between two variables has internal validity if the real is, in fact, casual and not due to the effects of one or more variables

External Validity

  • concerned with whether research findings in one study can be replicated in another study, often other different conditions

    • do the findings apply equally kn different settings? -

    • Example- Kansas City evaluation finding reductions in gun related crimes in police patrolled hotspots. Having similar findings in other locations with different types of crimes suggests the original findings from the Kansas City study had a high level of external validity

Construct validity

  • concerned with how well an observed relationship between variables represents the casual process

    • refers to generalizing from what we observe and measure to the real world things in which we are interested

Bias- internal validity and statistical conclusion validity threats are related to systematic and non systematic bias

Generalizability- construct validity and external validity are concerned with generalization to real world behaviors and conditions

Temporal order: which comes first, the drug use or the crime?

  • a statistical relationship exists, but the underlying causes affect both drug use and crime. This is a threat to internal validity

    • a crackdown on all drugs among all populations will have little effect to reduce serious crime

Scientific realism

  • bridges the idiographic and nomothetic approaches to explanation by seeking to understand how casual mechanisms operate in specific contexts

    • studies how such influences are involved in cause and effect relationships

    • Exhibits elements of both idiographic and nomothetic approaches to explanation

Units of analysis

  • The Who or the what being studies

    • also typically the unit of observation

Social artifacts

  • the products of social beings and their behavior. Social interactions are also examples.

Ecological fallacy

  • refers to the danger of making assertions about individuals based on the examinations of groups Or aggregations

  • Individualistic fallacy occurs when researchers have trouble reconciling general patterns of attitudes and actions with known individuals exceptions

Reductionism

  • an overly strict limitation on the concepts and variables to be considered as causes of the broad range of human behavior represented by crumbs and criminal justice policy

Cross sectional studies

  • carefully observe a single point in time (a cross section)

  • Typically descriptive and explanatory in nature

Descriptive research aims to define or summarize an event without explaining why it exists, focuses on acquiring and conveying facts

Explanatory research aims to explain why a phenomenon occurs by working to understand the causes and correlations between variables

Longitudinal studies

  • designed to permit observations over an extended period of time

Retrospective research

  • asks people to recall their past for the purposes of approximating observations over time

    • faulty technique because people have faulty memories

Prospective research

  • a longitudinal study that follows subjects forward in time