Russia Geltzer
Two Steps to Fix Relations With Russia Deterrence: Get Putin to respect the United States again
Objective: make Moscow fear consequences and start respecting US interests; deter aggressive moves while signaling consequences for transgressions.
Core premise: a credible mix of tougher sanctions, stronger alliances, and assertive diplomacy is needed.
Essential link: deterrence must be paired with building trust to avoid a perpetual cycle of hostility.
Trust-building: Earn the trust of Russians and future generations
Put differently: alongside deterrence, Washington must address Russia’s perception that the US seeks regime change.
Long-term aim: reduce fear of US intent and show that disagreements can coexist without existential threat.
Key challenge: public opinion in Russia often views the US as adversarial; shifting this view requires sustained effort.
Why these steps are needed
Putin has provoked the US with actions like invading Georgia, Crimea, Ukraine, assassinations, and election interference.
US responses have often been perceived as weak or inconsistent, reinforcing a sense of impunity in Moscow.
The combination of fear and mistrust drives ongoing aggressive behavior; addressing both is necessary for lasting change.
How to deter (policy toolkit)
Toughen sanctions and maintain pressure for compliance.
Strengthen military alliances and credibility of US commitments.
Conduct more assertive diplomacy to signal resolve.
Clearly communicate that the United States does not seek regime change in Russia.
Implement a comprehensive, multi-vector strategy rather than isolated actions.
Public diplomacy and messaging
Communicate human rights concerns candidly while avoiding insinuations of overthrow intent.
Provide an explicit disavowal of regime-change ambitions.
Expand educational and citizen-to-citizen exchanges to rebuild trust.
Recognize legitimate Russian interests in its near abroad within NATO/European partnership contexts.
Use cultural exchanges and outreach to reduce fear and misunderstanding.
Engagement with the near abroad and regional interests
Acknowledge Russia’s interests in neighboring states and the presence of millions of Russians abroad.
Balance engagement with the need to deter coercive behavior; avoid giving Moscow a free pass to bully neighbors.
Demonstrate that cooperation with Russia is possible on shared interests without compromising Western commitments.
Role of the Global Engagement Center and media counter-disinformation
bolster efforts to counter Kremlin-backed disinformation.
Support local news media and civil society to promote reliable information.
Train and empower civil society to use social media effectively to spread accurate information.
Long-term outlook and caveats
Putin is unlikely to depart overnight; expect a gradual, multi-year process to reshape dynamics.
Public perception in Russia about US aggression and interference is persistent: see the US as aggressive and believe it interferes in other countries.
The long-term project is to create foundations for future Russian leaders to respect and trust the US and to coexist with differing systems.
Quick takeaways
The path to a more stable relationship rests on two steps: deter aggressive behavior and earn trust over the long term.
This requires a combined strategy of sanctions, alliances, diplomacy, clear non-regime-change messaging, public diplomacy, and people-to-people exchanges.
Building trust with Russians—now and for future generations—is essential to prevent another cycle of hostility.