Case Studies in AI Governance and the Rebuttal to Robinson

David Robinson’s Vision for AI Governance

  • During a presentation regarding a kidney donation algorithm, David Robinson detailed a specific vision for the governance of AI systems.

  • Central to this vision is the concept of the "whiteboard," which represents the execution plan developed during the creation of an AI system.

  • The whiteboard contains:

    • The intended functions of the AI system.

    • Specific technical details regarding the algorithm's construction and logic.

  • Robinson posits that effective governance is achieved when regulators or oversight bodies gain access to ‘the room where it happens’ to review the contents of this whiteboard.

  • This approach is modeled after the perceived success and transparency of the kidney donation algorithm.

Critique of the Whiteboard Assumption

  • The feasibility of using the ‘whiteboard’ method for universal AI governance depends on two critical assumptions that are not always applicable in real-world scenarios:

    • Organizations developing AI must be willing to trust outside entities with access to their internal development environments and strategic ‘whiteboards.’

    • The information discovered on the whiteboard must be demonstrably helpful or actionable for those outside actors.

  • There is a significant legal and structural divide between public and private entities:

    • Public services or city governments may be legally compelled to reveal their decision-making algorithms.

    • Private entities face a more complex situation where transparency may conflict with business interests.

Transparency, Profit, and Auditing

  • Private companies are frequently disincentivized from sharing algorithmic details because their primary goal is to generate profit from the products enabled by those algorithms.

  • There are high-stakes risks associated with the exposure of powerful systems, such as large language models like GPT; releasing such systems without rigorous consideration could result in widespread misuse.

  • Third-party algorithmic auditing is a proposed solution to balance transparency and proprietary secrets:

    • Auditors can check for harmful biases.

    • This process does not require the company to expose its proprietary code to the general public.

Criteria for Beneficial AI Systems

  • AI systems should be required to pass specific tests and meet criteria established by both experts and the public to ensure they are beneficial to humanity. Key evaluation criteria include:

    • Accuracy: Maintaining high performance across the specific groups of people the algorithm might affect.

    • Robustness: Ensuring the algorithm does not fail or degrade significantly when its operating environment changes.

    • Real-World Efficacy: Verifying that the system works properly and as intended in practical, real-world applications.

The Problem of Explicability in AI

  • Nigam Shah suggests that the requirement for an explanation depends on the context of the AI's use:

    • Systems used for hiring decisions require deep, detailed explanations to ensure fairness.

    • Systems assisting doctors in medical decision-making may only need to prove they are effective, regardless of whether the internal mechanisms are fully understood.

  • Explaining AI reasoning is inherently difficult due to:

    • Extreme technical complexity.

    • The lack of a standardized, universal definition of what constitute an ‘explanation.’

  • AI and humans do not share a common language for experience:

    • An algorithm trained to distinguish between cats and dogs perceives specific image properties that assist its decision.

    • These properties are often difficult for a human to decipher or understand in human terms.

  • Adrian Weller and the BBC suggest that it is often more important for an algorithm to operate reliably, safely, and without discrimination than for it to be explicable.

  • If a company is unable to explain an algorithm to the satisfaction of its stakeholders, the situation enters a ‘grey area’ that may necessitate resolution through the court system.

Case Study 1: Algorithmic Infrastructure Allocation in City I

  • Scenario: City I attempted to use an algorithmic system to distribute a limited annual budget for infrastructure spending across various city sectors.

  • Motivation:

    • The city government lacked confidence in its existing manual allocation schemes.

    • They believed software would be more cost-effective than hiring a team of experts.

    • They sought to rectify a historical legacy of racial and social discrimination in resource distribution.

  • Implementation:

    • The city contracted a local company, I Software, to build the system.

    • The system utilized city-provided data and specifications regarding public transportation and road improvements.

    • A government task force served as the liaison between I Software, the government, and the public.

    • Because the algorithm did not involve proprietary intellectual property owned by the firm, the data and implementation details were shared fully with the task force.

  • Primary Metric: The task force instructed I Software to design the algorithm to maximize economic output, specifically measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

  • Limitations and Failures of the GDP Maximization Algorithm:

    • Initial results showed an overall increase in GDP, but the task force discovered the budget was being allocated almost exclusively to areas that already possessed robust infrastructure.

    • Public Feedback: During a public conference, citizens argued that neglected areas represented unrealized economic potential that the algorithm ignored.

    • Data and Temporal Flaws: The algorithm utilized a short-term metric, measuring the increase in GDP exactly 11 year after a project began.

    • Skewed Data: There were very few data points regarding the economic output of investments in neglected areas, leading to a biological loop of underinvestment.

  • New Findings:

    • Historical data revealed that consistent investment in fixing roads in neglected areas produced a return on investment that exceeded other parts of the city when measured over a period of 55 years.

  • Causality and Human Factors:

    • The algorithm processed historical data for correlations but was incapable of detecting causality.

    • It failed to account for the human factor: improved infrastructure (such as parks, roads, and playgrounds) improves citizen morale, which leads to higher productivity and increased local economic engagement.

  • Conclusion: The city concluded that their goal was too multifaceted for the algorithm, which could not incorporate the deep research required for long-term health. They determined that hiring human experts was a better investment than the unreliable algorithm, despite the higher cost.

Case Study 2: Proprietary Lung Cancer Detection

  • Scenario: Company A developed a proprietary algorithm for identifying lung cancer, claiming the system was more accurate than a panel of human experts.

  • Partnership: Hospital B wanted to implement the system but required a deep understanding of its performance, even though the code was proprietary.

  • Performance Metrics: The hospital focused on two critical error types:

    • False Positives: Incorrectly predicting cancer, which leads to unnecessary, invasive surgery.

    • False Negatives: Incorrectly predicting a lack of cancer, which is more dangerous because it misses a life-threatening condition.

  • Testing Method: Company A provided an API (Application Programming Interface). This allowed doctors to test the algorithm on their own internal patient data without accessing or seeing the proprietary internal code.

  • Validation Process:

    • Doctors established baseline true positive and true negative rates.

    • They created a representative dataset that included various races, genders, and health conditions.

    • The algorithm performed reasonably well, nearly meeting the specific thresholds set by the doctors.

  • Privacy Regulations and HIPAA Challenges:

    • Hospital B intended to provide patient data to ‘fine-tune’ the algorithm, which raised concerns regarding the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA).

    • Regulatory Gap: HIPAA was established in 19961996 and does not explicitly account for modern AI healthcare applications.

    • The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has stated that more guidance is required regarding de-identification methods for AI use.

  • Resolution: Company A obtained an exemption by proving the effectiveness of their de-identification process through a third-party vendor. This vendor attempted to retrieve sensitive information from the scrubbed data and failed, verifying the security of the process.

  • Conclusion: While the specific case between Company A and Hospital B was resolved, it highlights the need for outdated policies like HIPAA to catch up to the realities of modern AI to facilitate beneficial use while maintaining data security.