Comprehensive Ecology Study Notes on Global Climate and Atmospheric Dynamics

Weather, Climate, and Planetary Energy Balance

  • Fundamental Distinctions:

    • Weather: The temporary, short-term atmospheric conditions occurring at a specific time and place.

    • Climate: The long-term integrated averages of atmospheric conditions over seasons, years, or decades. Climate is primarily driven by the dynamic interactions among Earth's surface, the atmosphere, and incoming solar radiation.

    • Thermodynamic Principles:

      • Entropy continuously increases across atmospheric energy transfers.

      • Colder air contains fewer photons and less kinetic thermal energy than warm air.

      • Liquid water can exist on Earth because of the atmosphere; the natural greenhouse effect establishes the thermal conditions necessary to maintain water in a liquid state rather than frozen ice.

  • Earth's Energy Interception and Radiation Balance:

    • The planetary thermal system operates on a balanced global energy budget where total energy inputs equal total energy outputs:         Inputs=51 units+96 units=147 units\text{Inputs} = 51\,\text{units} + 96\,\text{units} = 147\,\text{units}         Outputs=30 units+117 units=147 units\text{Outputs} = 30\,\text{units} + 117\,\text{units} = 147\,\text{units}

    • Incoming Solar Radiation:

      • Evaluated at an incoming benchmark of 100 units100\,\text{units} of short-wave electromagnetic frequency (EMF) radiation.

      • 30 units30\,\text{units} are reflected and scattered directly back to space by clouds, atmospheric particles, and Earth's reflective surface.

      • 19 units19\,\text{units} are absorbed directly by clouds and the atmosphere.

      • 51 units51\,\text{units} are absorbed directly by the surface of Earth.

    • Surface Heat Losses:

      • Earth's surface dissipates energy through latent heat transfer (evaporation) equal to 23 units23\,\text{units}.

      • Convective and conductive heat loss (thermals) accounts for 7 units7\,\text{units}.

      • Together, evaporation and thermals account for a combined non-radiative output of 30 units30\,\text{units}.

      • Thermal long-wave infrared (IR EMF) radiated directly by Earth's surface equals 117 units117\,\text{units}.

    • The Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect:

      • The greenhouse effect occurs when atmospheric gases interact with radiating infrared photons emitted by the terrestrial surface, absorbing them and re-radiating them in all directions, kicking them back to Earth.

      • Radiative transfer involves 111 units111\,\text{units} participating in the greenhouse effect cycle within the atmosphere and clouds.

      • 96 units96\,\text{units} of infrared radiation are emitted downward from the atmosphere and absorbed back by the surface of Earth.

      • 6 units6\,\text{units} of long-wave radiation escape directly through the atmospheric window into space.

    • Primary Greenhouse Gas Constituents:

      • Water Vapor (H2OH_2O): The main and most abundant natural greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.

      • Carbon Dioxide (CO2CO_2): A persistent greenhouse gas that is chemically more potent per molecule than water vapor in radiative forcing over long atmospheric residence times.

      • Methane (CH4CH_4): A potent greenhouse gas capable of trapping substantial amounts of infrared EMF.

Global energy budget diagram illustrating incoming shortwave and outgoing longwave radiation flows

Atmospheric Structure and Vertical Temperature Gradients

  • Atmospheric Pressure and Density Gradients:

    • Atmospheric Pressure: The force exerted by the weight of the air column above a given point on Earth's surface. Atmospheric pressure is at its maximum at sea level (0 km0\,\text{km}) and drops exponentially as altitude increases toward space.

    • Air Density: The concentration of air molecules per unit volume decreases sharply with height. Dense air molecules are packed near sea level, thinning rapidly through the upper atmosphere up to 500 km500\,\text{km}.

    • Adiabatic Cooling: The reduction in air temperature caused by the expansion of an air parcel as it rises into lower atmospheric pressure, rather than through heat loss to the surrounding environment.

  • Thermal Stratification of Atmospheric Layers:

    • Troposphere:

      • Extends from Earth's surface (0 km0\,\text{km}) up to approximately 10 km10\,\text{km}.

      • Contains the bulk of atmospheric mass and weather phenomena.

      • Temperature declines steadily with altitude from an average surface baseline of roughly 15∘C15^\circ\text{C} down to approximately −55∘C-55^\circ\text{C} or −60∘C-60^\circ\text{C} at its upper limit.

      • Terminates at the Tropopause at approximately 10 km10\,\text{km}.

    • Stratosphere:

      • Extends from approximately 10 km10\,\text{km} to 50 km50\,\text{km}.

      • Much colder in its lower reaches than the lower troposphere, but temperature increases with altitude, rising from −55∘C-55^\circ\text{C} to near 0∘C0^\circ\text{C} at the top.

      • Temperature increases with height due to the absorption of solar radiation.

      • Terminates at the Stratopause at approximately 50 km50\,\text{km}.

    • Mesosphere:

      • Extends from approximately 50 km50\,\text{km} to 85–100 km85\text{--}100\,\text{km}.

      • Characterized by extremely low density and falling temperatures, plunging to atmospheric lows of approximately −90∘C-90^\circ\text{C} to −100∘C-100^\circ\text{C}.

      • Terminates at the Mesopause at approximately 85–100 km85\text{--}100\,\text{km}.

    • Thermosphere:

      • Extends from approximately 100 km100\,\text{km} to beyond 500 km500\,\text{km}.

      • The hottest layer of the atmosphere, where temperatures surge well past 100∘C100^\circ\text{C} due to direct energetic interactions with high-energy extraterrestrial radiation.

    • Exosphere:

      • Located above the thermosphere, fading into interplanetary space; it represents a transitional zone that is almost a complete vacuum.

  • Selective Electromagnetic Radiation Filtering:

    • The atmosphere acts as a selective filter for specific bands of the electromagnetic spectrum:

      • The thermosphere absorbs high-energy cosmic rays and X-rays.

      • The stratosphere absorbs the vast majority of lethal ultraviolet (UV) radiation due to the concentrated presence of the ozone layer (O3O_3).

Atmospheric vertical profile showing temperature lapse and layers from troposphere to thermosphere

Latitudinal and Seasonal Variations in Solar Radiation

  • Oblique Angles and Latitudinal Solar Intensity:

    • Solar light intensity is greatest at the equator because solar rays strike the surface at right angles (90∘90^\circ), concentrating incoming photons over the smallest possible surface area.

    • As latitude increases poleward, solar rays strike Earth's curved surface at an increasingly oblique angle.

    • For identical beam widths (A=BA = B):

      • The equatorial footprint (CC) is compact and perpendicular.

      • The high-latitude footprint (DD) is elongated and oblique.

      • Because C<DC < D, the radiant energy per unit surface area is significantly smaller at higher latitudes (C>DC > D in intensity), spreading photons thinly and causing high latitudes to be colder and darker.

Geometric schematic showing the spreading of solar radiation due to Earth's curvature
  • Mechanisms of Earth's Seasons:

    • The primary driver of seasonal variations is Earth's tilted axis of rotation (an axial tilt of approximately 23.5∘23.5^\circ).

    • As Earth orbits the Sun once every 365.25 days365.25\,\text{days}, the tilt maintains a fixed orientation in space, causing northern and southern latitudes to receive changing angles of incidence and variable day lengths throughout the year:

      • Summer Solstice (June 20/21): Solar radiation strikes directly perpendicular to the Tropic of Cancer (23.5∘N23.5^\circ\text{N}), producing a less oblique angle, maximum energy input, and longest day length in the Northern Hemisphere.

      • Vernal and Autumnal Equinoxes (March 19/20 and September 22/23): Solar radiation falls directly perpendicular onto the Equator (0∘0^\circ), providing equal day and night durations worldwide.

      • Winter Solstice (December 21/22): Solar radiation strikes directly perpendicular to the Tropic of Capricorn (23.5∘S23.5^\circ\text{S}), maximizing energy input and day length in the Southern Hemisphere while subjecting northern latitudes to highly oblique, low-intensity insolation.

Seasonal orientations of Earth relative to incoming solar rays during solstices and equinoxes

Global Air Circulation, Coriolis Effect, and Wind Belts

  • Convective Circulation Principles:

    • Earth rotates on its axis once every 24 hours24\,\text{hours}, causing the Sun to appear to rise in the east and set in the west.

    • Air near the equator heats rapidly through intense direct insolation, expands, becomes less dense, and ascends high into the troposphere.

    • Upon rising, the warm equatorial air diverges toward the north and south poles.

    • As it travels poleward at high altitudes, the air radiates heat into space, cools, increases in density, and descends back toward the surface at higher latitudes before returning equatorward.

  • The Coriolis Effect:

    • Governed by Newton's law of momentum (conservation of angular momentum and inertia).

    • Because Earth's rotational linear velocity is highest at the equator (roughly 1670 km/h1670\,\text{km/h}) and decreases to zero at the rotational poles, an air mass moving latitudinally preserves its initial eastward rotational momentum.

    • As the surface rotates underneath the traveling air mass, the path appears to deflect from the perspective of an observer on the ground:

      • Northern Hemisphere: Air is deflected to the right of its path of motion.

      • Southern Hemisphere: Air is deflected to the left of its path of motion.

      • Equator (0∘0^\circ): Deflection is absent (deflection=0\text{deflection} = 0).

      • Poles (90∘N90^\circ\text{N} and 90∘S90^\circ\text{S}): Deflection reaches its maximum magnitude.

  • Six Major Atmospheric Circulation Cells and Pressure Systems:

    • The combined action of convective heating and the Coriolis deflection separates global tropospheric circulation into six distinct circulation loops (three per hemisphere):

      • Hadley Cells: Located between the Equator (0∘0^\circ) and 30∘N30^\circ\text{N} and 30∘S30^\circ\text{S}. Warm air rises at the Equator, creating an Equatorial Low pressure trough, diverges poleward, cools, and subsides at 30∘30^\circ, forming the Subtropical High pressure belt.

      • Ferrel Cells: Mid-latitude cells operating between 30∘30^\circ and 60∘60^\circ latitude in each hemisphere. Surface air moving poleward from the Subtropical High is deflected, ascending around 60∘60^\circ at the Subpolar Low pressure zone.

      • Polar Cells: High-latitude cells operating between 60∘60^\circ and the poles (90∘90^\circ). Air rises at the Subpolar Low, migrates to the pole, cools extensively over polar ice sheets, and descends to form the cold Polar High.

  • Global Prevailing Wind Systems:

    • Northeast Trade Winds: Low-level winds in the Northern Hemisphere flowing southwestward from the Subtropical High toward the Equatorial Low, deflected rightward by the Coriolis force.

    • Southeast Trade Winds: Low-level winds in the Southern Hemisphere flowing northwestward from the Subtropical High toward the Equatorial Low, deflected leftward by the Coriolis force.

    • Westerlies: Prevailing surface winds in the mid-latitudes (30∘–60∘30^\circ\text{--}60^\circ) flowing from the southwest in the Northern Hemisphere and northwest in the Southern Hemisphere toward the poles.

    • Polar Easterlies: Cold surface winds flowing out of the Polar Highs toward the subpolar low-pressure belts, deflected westward.

    • Doldrums: The calm equatorial belt coincident with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), characterized by weak horizontal surface winds and flat seas, as air movement is predominantly vertical.

Global atmospheric circulation model showing Hadley, Ferrel, and Polar cells alongside surface winds and pressure belts

Ocean Circulation, Gyres, and Historical Maritime Trade

  • Ocean Currents and Gyre Formation:

    • Currents: Large-scale directed flows of oceanic water driven by persistent friction from prevailing surface trade winds and westerlies.

    • Gyres: Great circular current systems spanning ocean basins. They are shaped by prevailing winds, continental boundaries, and Coriolis deflection:

      • Rotate clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere.

      • Rotate counter-clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.

    • Major oceanic gyres include the North Atlantic Gyre, South Atlantic Gyre, North Pacific Gyre, South Pacific Gyre, and Indian Ocean Gyre.

    • The Gulf Stream is an intense, warm western boundary current within the North Atlantic Gyre that transports heat from the tropical Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico across the Atlantic toward Western Europe.

Map of global oceanic surface currents displaying the circular paths of major gyres
  • Historical and Economic Impacts of Wind and Current Systems:

    • Vasco da Gama's 1497–1499 Voyage of Exploration:

      • Early navigation routes to India (Carreira da Índia) exploited global wind and current systems.

      • To bypass adverse headwinds off the West African coast, Portuguese navigators executed the Volta do Mar ("turn of the sea"), sailing far southwest into the open Atlantic to catch the favorable clockwise North Atlantic Gyre and counter-clockwise South Atlantic Gyre before rounding the Cape of Good Hope.

      • Voyages across the Indian Ocean to Calicut and Cochin relied directly on seasonally reversing Indian monsoon wind currents.

    • The Historic Triangle Trade System:

      • A transatlantic mercantile network that relied directly on the North Atlantic Gyre and the Gulf Stream:

        • Outward Leg: Ships transported European manufactured goods, textiles, and rum south to the West African coast via the eastern boundary currents.

        • Middle Passage: Ships caught the westward-flowing Northeast Trade Winds to carry enslaved African people across the tropical Atlantic to the Americas and the Caribbean.

        • Homeward Leg: Vessels carried raw colonial commodities (sugar, tobacco, cotton) northeast back to Europe by riding the Gulf Stream and mid-latitude westerlies.

Map depicting the historic transatlantic Triangle Trade route aligning with the North Atlantic gyre

Atmospheric Moisture, Humidity, and Global Precipitation Regimes

  • Atmospheric Moisture Metrics and Measurement:

    • Warmer air has higher thermal kinetic energy, enabling it to hold substantially more water vapor before reaching saturation than colder air.

    • Relative Humidity (RH): The ratio of the actual amount of water vapor in the air to the maximum amount of water vapor the air can hold at that specific temperature:         Relative humidity=Current vapor pressureSaturation vapor pressure×100\text{Relative humidity} = \frac{\text{Current vapor pressure}}{\text{Saturation vapor pressure}} \times 100

    • Operational Example Calculation:         Relative humidity=2 kPa3.2 kPa×100=62.5%\text{Relative humidity} = \frac{2\,\text{kPa}}{3.2\,\text{kPa}} \times 100 = 62.5\%

    • Alternative Conceptual Formulation:         Relative Humidity=Amount of H2O(g)Amount of H2O(g) Possible\text{Relative Humidity} = \frac{\text{Amount of } H_2O_{(g)}}{\text{Amount of } H_2O_{(g)}\text{ Possible}}

    • Dew Point: The critical temperature to which an air parcel must cool (at constant pressure) for relative humidity to reach exactly 100%100\%.

    • Dew Formation: Occurs when ambient surface temperatures drop below the dew point, forcing excess water vapor to condense out of solution onto cold solid surfaces.

    • Fog: Tiny, microscopic liquid water droplets suspended directly in the lower atmospheric boundary layer, formed when moist air cools below its dew point near the ground.

    • Sling Psychrometer: A meteorological instrument used to determine relative humidity. It consists of two thermometers—a dry bulb measuring ambient air temperature and a wet bulb fitted with a water-moistened fabric wick. Whirling the instrument causes evaporative cooling on the wet bulb; the resulting wet-bulb depression is compared against psychrometric tables to determine relative humidity.

Sling psychrometer instrument displaying the dual dry bulb and wet wick thermometers
  • Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and Monsoons:

    • ITCZ Definition: The equatorial boundary zone where the converging Northeast and Southeast trade winds meet.

    • Intense solar heating produces powerful vertical convection, lifting warm, moisture-laden air upward where it cools adiabatically, generating an almost continuous line of towering thunderstorms across the tropics.

    • Seasonal Migration of the ITCZ:

      • The position of the ITCZ follows the seasonal migration of maximum solar zenith:

        • Northern Hemisphere Summer: Migrates north toward the Tropic of Cancer.

        • Equinoxes (Spring and Autumn): Centers over the Equator.

        • Northern Hemisphere Winter: Migrates south toward the Tropic of Capricorn.

      • Monsoon Rainfall Patterns:

        • Regions located near the maximum latitudinal excursions of the ITCZ experience one monsoon season per year.

        • Equatorial regions crossed twice annually as the ITCZ migrates north and south experience two distinct monsoon seasons per year.

  • Global Latitudinal Precipitation Profile and Desert Distribution:

    • Precipitation exhibits a marked, symmetrical global pattern linked directly to the six atmospheric circulation cells:

      • Equator (0∘0^\circ, ITCZ): Peak global precipitation (150–200 cm150\text{--}200\,\text{cm} or 60–80 in60\text{--}80\,\text{in} per year) driven by strong convective updrafts.

      • Subtropical Highs (30∘N30^\circ\text{N} and 30∘S30^\circ\text{S}): Pronounced precipitation troughs (<25 cm<25\,\text{cm} or <10 in<10\,\text{in} per year). The descending air mass compresses, warms adiabatically, and dries, inhibiting cloud formation and producing the world's major subtropical deserts (e.g., Sahara, Arabian, Sonoran, Kalahari, Australian deserts).

      • Subpolar Lows (60∘N60^\circ\text{N} and 60∘S60^\circ\text{S}): Secondary precipitation peaks (80–100 cm80\text{--}100\,\text{cm} or 30–40 in30\text{--}40\,\text{in} per year) generated where warm temperate air rises over polar air masses along the polar front.

      • Poles (90∘N90^\circ\text{N} and 90∘S90^\circ\text{S}): Extreme polar deserts (<25 cm<25\,\text{cm} per year) caused by cold air holding little moisture and subsiding persistently over ice caps.

Latitudinal distribution graph showing annual precipitation peaks at the equator and 60 degrees alongside troughs at 30 degrees and the poles

Topographic Influences, Regional Climate Anomalies, and Microclimates

  • Topography and the Rain Shadow Effect:

    • Topography: The physical surface relief features and elevation changes of a planet or region.

    • Orographic Precipitation and Rain Shadows:

      • Prevailing winds carry warm, moist marine air from oceans onto land toward mountain ranges.

      • Windward Side: The ascending air mass cools adiabatically as it rises against the mountain barrier:

        • Sea level (0 m0\,\text{m}): 20∘C20^\circ\text{C}

        • 750 m750\,\text{m}: 14∘C14^\circ\text{C}

        • 1500 m1500\,\text{m}: 8∘C8^\circ\text{C}

        • 2250 m2250\,\text{m}: 2∘C2^\circ\text{C}

        • 3000 m3000\,\text{m}: −4∘C-4^\circ\text{C}

        • As the air cools, relative humidity hits 100%100\%, causing condensation, cloud formation, and heavy precipitation that supports lush, moist forest biomes.

      • Leeward Side: Once air crests the summit, it flows downward, compressing and warming adiabatically. Because the air lost its moisture on the windward ascent, its relative humidity plummets, creating a dry, arid or semi-arid environment known as a rain shadow (desert side).

    • Geographic Examples of Rain Shadow Effects:

      • Island of Maui: Features a dense, lush tropical rainforest on the windward slopes and dry, scrubby desert conditions on the leeward slopes.

      • Washington State: Marine air moving eastward from the Pacific creates coastal temperate rainforests on the Olympic Peninsula and western Cascades. East of the Cascade Mountains, the leeward rain shadow creates the arid Columbia Basin desert and steppe environments.

Diagram showing the rain shadow effect with adiabatic cooling on the windward side and warming on the leeward side
  • Lake Effect Snow:

    • Occurs when frigid Arctic air masses travel across the relatively warm open waters of the Laurentian Great Lakes.

    • The cold air parcel rapidly absorbs heat and water vapor from the lake surface, becomes buoyant, rises, and dumps heavy localized snow belts on downwind (eastern and southern) shorelines.

    • Prominent snow belt regions include Buffalo (New York), Marquette (Michigan), northern Ohio, northwestern Pennsylvania, and Thunder Bay (Ontario).

Regional map showing prominent Great Lakes snowbelts in the northern United States and southern Canada
  • El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO):

    • Normal Pacific Conditions:

      • Equatorial trade winds blow strongly from east to west across the tropical Pacific Ocean.

      • Warm surface waters are pushed westward, pooling in the western Pacific around Indonesia and northern Australia, driving convective updrafts and heavy rainfall.

      • Off the western coast of South America (Peru), deep, cold, nutrient-rich water wells up to the surface (upwelling).

      • This upwelling fertilizes phytoplankton blooms, fueling extraordinary marine ecological productivity and large commercial fisheries.

    • El Niño Conditions:

      • Equatorial trade winds weaken or reverse.

      • The pool of warm, nutrient-poor surface water sloshes eastward toward the coast of South America.

      • Upwelling of nutrient-rich cold water off Peru ceases or drops sharply.

      • Ecological and Climatological Impacts:

        • Marine productivity collapses, leading to fishery die-offs and seabird starvation.

        • Peru experiences unseasonal torrential rains and destructive flooding.

        • Indonesia and Australia suffer intense heatwaves and severe agricultural droughts.

        • Global teleconnections disrupt continental weather patterns across North and South America.

    • La Niña Conditions:

      • An intensification of normal baseline conditions, characterized by unusually cold eastern Pacific surface temperatures and enhanced upwelling off South America.

Side-by-side block diagrams contrasting normal upwelling conditions in the Pacific with El Niño disruption
  • Microclimates and Environmental Modifications:

    • Microclimate: The localized suite of climatic conditions (temperature, humidity, light, wind) measured within a micro-habitat that differs from the regional macroclimate. Most organisms live within microclimates rather than broad regional averages.

    • Biological Examples:

      • Moss grows predominantly on the north side of tree trunks in the Northern Hemisphere, which receives less direct solar radiation and remains cooler and moister.

      • Severe ground fires in the mid-1800s on the Alleghany Plateau of West Virginia: logging slash accumulated and fueled catastrophic fires that consumed the organic soil down to bare bedrock. The destroyed soil microclimate prevented the original spruce forests from ever recovering.

    • Urban Heat Islands:

      • Urban environments experience elevated temperatures compared to adjacent rural landscapes because vegetation is replaced with asphalt, concrete, building mass, and anthropogenic waste heat.

      • In Detroit, Michigan, city limits measure 1.8∘F1.8^\circ\text{F} to 5.4∘F5.4^\circ\text{F} (1∘C1^\circ\text{C} to 3∘C3^\circ\text{C}) warmer than adjacent rural and suburban environments.

      • Maximum thermal zones (red) correspond to heavily developed industrial and commercial cores (Detroit Institute of Arts, Hart Plaza, Historic Fort Wayne).

      • Minimum thermal zones (white) correspond to large urban parks and river waterways (Rouge Park, Belle Isle).

Heat map of Detroit urban heat island showing temperature variations between urban cores and parklands

Long-Term Climate Dynamics and Global Climate Change

  • Empirical Global Warming Trends:

    • Short-Term Regional Temperature Tracking (1970–2000):

      • Historical annual temperature records from 1970 to 2000 show a clear warming trend:             y=0.0851x−119.57y = 0.0851x - 119.57             R2=0.2293R^2 = 0.2293

      • Temperatures show annual fluctuations between roughly 47∘F47^\circ\text{F} and 53.5∘F53.5^\circ\text{F}, with a steady positive slope.

    • Instrumental Global Temperature Anomalies (1880–2010):

      • Data compiled by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS / NASA) indicates that mean annual global temperatures have risen by over 0.8∘C0.8^\circ\text{C} relative to pre-industrial baselines.

      • Ten-year running averages confirm accelerated global heating beginning around 1970.

    • Millennial Paleoclimate Temperature Reconstruction (1000–2000 AD):

      • Reconstructions of past temperatures show relative stability within a range of ±0.2∘C\pm 0.2^\circ\text{C} to −0.4∘C-0.4^\circ\text{C} throughout the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.

      • Beginning around the Industrial Revolution (late 19th century), global temperatures broke out of natural multi-century bounds, spiking upward into an unprecedented anomaly above +0.6∘C+0.6^\circ\text{C}.

  • Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Paleorecords (Vostok Ice Core Data):

    • Antarctic ice core data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC / NOAA) reconstructs atmospheric CO2CO_2 concentrations across the past 400,000 years400,000\,\text{years}:

      • Natural glacial-interglacial cycles kept atmospheric CO2CO_2 bounded between approximately 180 ppm180\,\text{ppm} during glacial maxima and 280–300 ppm280\text{--}300\,\text{ppm} during warm interglacials.

      • Modern industrial activity has driven atmospheric CO2CO_2 far above this historical ceiling, surging past 380 ppm380\,\text{ppm} and continuing upward past modern levels of 400 ppm400\,\text{ppm}.

      • This rapid rise in greenhouse gas concentrations drives the ongoing modern increase in global mean temperatures.

Combined chart displaying historical ice core carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperature anomalies