Determinants of Party Success
Leaders:
The leaders are the most important political figures in the UK, they are the recognisable face of the party - therefore by providing a strong and effective leader to a party can be crucial if the leader is to become a electoral asset for the party
David Cameron - successes
He was an effective party leader and was popular than both his own party and the leaders of other parties
These factors lead him to win the election in 2015 - where he was the first sitting Conservative to increase the party’s share since 1955
David Cameron - failures
Although he was popular, he struggled to manage the divisions of Europe and the offer of a referendum was an attempt to manage the divisions in his own party.
Tony Blair - successes
He had a strong media presence and very tight control of his party
he had three electoral victories and saw off 4 tory party leaders
Tony Blair - failures
due to his personal leadership he made decisions that were controversial within his own party
Campaigns:
Electoral campaigns have become extremely centralized. They are see as critical to getting party supporters out to vote and convincing those who are undecided to vote for their party.
Successes
The 2017 election campaign showed the influence the campaign had in changing the peoples vote.
Labour with their campaign managed to achieve a 20% swing in the polls, while 40% of those people who actually voted Labour were either undecided or going to for another party prior the campaign
Not an affect
However 2017 is the exception not the rule - the general pattern is that the party that is ahead in the polls when the election is called goes on to win the election, even in 2017.
in 2019 the polling gap between the two parties remained fairly consistent over the course of the election campaign, at around 10%
Media:
The media can help shape perceptions of the political parties either in a good way or in a bad way. Additionally parties can use the media to their advantage by projecting their message to the public
Successes
Labour party under Tony Blair ran a very tight media strategy and had various media skills - with this approach Blair’s New Labour received positive media coverage
the Sun switched from Conservative to Labour
Not an affect
While the media is important it does not guarantee success
For example Theresa May and her party had positive media coverage, but despite the strong support from the media the party did not win majority in the 2017 election.
Policy
The right policies both in terms of manifesto commitments and in terms of delivery when in office, are important in ensuring party success
Successes
Margret Thatcher’s Conservative Party policy was ‘Right to buy’ which gave the working class people the chance o buy their council house at a discount in order to own their own home and improve their circumstances
2019, the Conservatives approach of ‘Get Brexit Done’ against the Labour position of renegotiating a new deal with Europe and then holding a referendum to accept the deal was central to the Tories lead in the polls and election victory
Not an affect
In 1992, despite Labours internal policy review and move to a more moderate policy programme, questions remained over the experience and ability of Neil Kinnock to be Prime Minister, doubts were whipped up by the aggressive approach by the newspapers
Labour made campaign mistakes, particularly a triumphalist rally in Sheffield, which showed Labour thought it would have a real chance of winning, it may have influenced a larger vote for Tories.
Party Unity
A rule of UK politics is that divided parties appear weak, unable to lead or deliver on their policy promises. This problem is important when the leadership is at war with its members so the party is unable to focus on the key issues of the day.
Successes
In 1983 the united Conservatives delivered a clear victory over a bitterly divided Labour who were at war with themselves on whether to keep the old Labour principles.
In 2019, the Conservatives who had been divided, cam together behind Boris Johnson with ‘Get Brexit Done’, while Labour was internally divided
Not an affect
Despite internal divisions over Europe during the whole period of 2010 to 2017, the Tories still manged to emerge as the largest party in the House of Commons
Opposition
The nature of the opposition faced by a political party is important, both in terms of winning elections and delivering its manifesto when in office
Successes
Tony Blair’s Labour gov during his time in office faced a weak Conservative Party by infighting over Europe and its relationship with Thatcherism
Not an affect
In 1992 the Labour Party faced a Conservative Party that was divided over Europe hat was divided over Europe, damaged by its introduction to the Poll tax, and which had recently replaced an increasingly unpopular Margret Thatcher with relatively inexperienced John Major
Wider Political Context
one of the main influences on the success of political parties is events, and how the party responds to those events, particularly when the party is in power
Successes
In 1983, the decision to go to war with the Falklands, which ended in victory, cemented Margret Thatcher’s media image as the Iron Lady and helped her and the Tories win the 1983 election conclusively
On Black Wednesday in 1992 and in 2008 with the advent o the global economic crash, the reputations of John Major and Gordon Brown, respectively, and their parties’ images of economic competence were damaged, leading to a defeat in the next general election
Not an affect
While events can derail a party and its leaders, a united party with the right policies and a strong leader can still be successful. Tony Balir’s Labour comfortably won the 2005 election despite increasing numbers of rebellions from its backbenchers and the choice to go to war with Iraq in 2003.