Elections and Voting Systems in the United States

Plurality vs. Majority

  • Majority:

    • More than 50% of the votes cast (> 50%). Specifically, 50% plus one vote (50\% + 1).

    • Commonly used in elections worldwide.

  • Plurality:

    • The candidate receives more votes than any other individual candidate, but not necessarily a majority.

    • The United States uses a plurality voting system.

Election Types in the United States

  • Primary Elections:

    • Used by parties to determine their nominee (e.g., Republicans and Democrats).

    • Parties decide the process for selecting their nominee.

    • Example: 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump (Republican), Kamala Harris (Democrat).

  • General Elections:

    • The main election.

    • Sports analogy: Like the Super Bowl; teams must win preliminary games to participate.

  • Special Elections:

    • To fill vacancies or address new issues at the state or federal level.

    • Can include runoff elections.

Winner-Take-All Model

  • The U.S. uses a plurality winner-take-all model in primary, general, and special elections.

Texas Voting Patterns

  • Maps show voting differences (e.g., 2020 vs. 2024).

  • Most of Texas typically votes Republican (red), but major cities (Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, El Paso) often vote Democratic (blue).

  • The intensity of red or blue can vary between elections.

Presidential Elections and Popular Vote

  • Electoral College determines the president, but the popular vote reveals insights.

  • Past elections illustrate that winners sometimes do not receive a majority of the popular vote.

    • 2000 Election (George W. Bush vs. Al Gore):

      • George W. Bush won with 47.9% of the vote (52.1% voted against).

    • 2016 Election (Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton):

      • Donald Trump won with 46.1% of the vote (53.9% voted against).

    • 2024 Election:

      • Donald Trump got 49.9% of the vote (50.1% voted against).

  • The U.S. doesn't have many blowout elections; 2008 was the most recent example.

  • Candidates can win the presidency without a majority, obtaining only a plurality.

Proportional Representation

  • Other countries use proportional representation, where the percentage of votes equals the percentage of power in parliament.

  • Duverger's Law:

    • States that a plurality voting system encourages a two-party system.

    • Historically true for many countries, but less so in 2025.

  • Italian Parliament:

    • Features multiple parties (e.g., Five Star Movement, Democratic Party).

    • Seats are allocated based on the percentage of votes received.

      • Example: 10% of the vote equals 63 seats out of 630.

  • Pros:

    • No single party can act without a coalition.

  • Cons:

    • Coalitions can be unstable and hinder progress.

Plurality vs. Proportional Representation

  • Plurality: Winner takes all (50.1% wins everything).

  • Proportional: Representation matches the percentage of votes.

Voter Turnout

  • Voter turnout is the percentage of eligible voters who participate in an election.

  • Darker-colored states on the map have higher voter turnout (e.g., Minnesota, Washington, Oregon).

  • Texas usually has low voter turnout due to its size, diversity, and accessibility issues.

  • Presidential elections typically have the highest turnout due to media hype.

  • In 2020, voter turnout was over 66% due to the pandemic.

  • Voter turnout decreased in 2024.

Media's Role

  • The media aims to maximize viewers and revenue through ads.

  • Conservative networks (Fox News, Newsmax) and liberal networks (CNN, MSNBC) cater to different audiences.

  • Agenda Setting:

    • The media decides what issues are important.

    • Websites like CNN and Fox News may cover the same stories but frame them differently.

Candidate Strategy and Voter Turnout

  • Candidates aim to maximize their voter turnout and hope their opponent's turnout decreases. Media plays a role.

Texas Congressional Map and Election Results

  • In the 2020 election, Joe Biden won 306 electoral college votes.

  • In Texas:

    • Donald Trump received 52.1% of the vote (5,890,000 votes).

    • Joe Biden received 46.5% of the vote (5,259,000 votes).

  • Because of the electoral college and plurality voting system, Biden's votes didn't help him in Texas.

Local Elections: Texas Governor Election (2022)

  • Greg Abbott won a third term.

  • About 8,000,000 votes were cast (3,000,000 less than in the 2020 presidential election).

  • Joe Biden outperformed Beto O'Rourke in 2020 vs. 2022.

Majority Rule Example: Georgia Senate Election (2022)

  • Rafael Warnock won with 51% of the vote in a runoff election.

  • A third-party candidate prevented either candidate from achieving a majority in the initial election.

  • Georgia requires a majority to win, triggering a runoff election between the top two vote-getters.

Open and Closed Primaries

  • Texas has open primaries, where voters can vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary, but not both.

Local Election Analysis: Ector County

  • In Ector County, Republican candidates consistently win about three-quarters of the vote.

  • Vote totals decrease down the ballot, with fewer votes cast for local races.

  • During presidential elections, some voters only vote for president and skip the rest of the ballot.

North Carolina Example (2024)

  • Split ticket voting: voters supported Donald Trump for president but Democrats for other state positions.