Hillary Clinton's Changing Support Base: Racial Attitudes and the 2008 vs. 2016 Elections

Overview

  • The article explores why Hillary Clinton's white support declined from 2008 to 2016 while her black support increased significantly.
  • The author is Michael Tesler, assistant professor of political science at the University of California in Irvine.

Pennsylvania Primary Results

  • In Pennsylvania, Clinton's overall support was similar in 2008 and 2016 (54.6% and 55.6%, respectively).
  • However, the demographic breakdown was different:
    • 2008: 63% of the white vote and 10% of the black vote.
    • 2016: 51% of the white vote and 70% of the African-American vote.

Broader Trends

  • Similar trends were observed in other states, such as Indiana, where Clinton did 65 percentage points better with black voters but 17 points worse with white voters in 2016 compared to 2008.
  • On average, Clinton's share of the white vote in 2016 was 10 points lower than in 2008, while her support among blacks was 60 points higher.

Racial Attitudes as a Predictor

  • Prior research indicated that racial attitudes were a strong predictor of white Americans' preferences in the 2008 election between Clinton and Obama.
  • In 2008, racially liberal Democrats favored Clinton more than racially conservative Democrats. After Clinton joined Obama's administration, this pattern reemerged.

Shift in the Impact of Racial Attitudes

  • Racial attitudes had a different effect on white Americans' voter preferences in the 2016 primary compared to 2008.
  • Attitudes about African Americans that strongly influenced voters in 2008 were not as powerful in the 2016 pilot survey.
  • Clinton's vote share declined from 2008 to 2016 among whites who rated blacks unfavorably and expressed racially resentful sentiments.
  • Support for the Black Lives Matter movement had no impact on white Democrats' preferences for Clinton or Sanders in a YouGov/Economist poll.
  • Analyses of RAND's Presidential Election Panel Survey (PEPS) show that racial and ethnocentric attitudes had little influence on the Democratic race in 2016.
  • Longitudinal data from PEPS respondents surveyed in both 2008 and 2016 confirm that racial attitudes were the strongest predictor of changes in Clinton support among white panelists.

Geographic Shifts

  • Clinton's geographic coalition changed, especially in Deep South states with large African American populations and racially prejudiced whites.
  • Clinton performed worst in 2016 in Deep South counties where she performed best in 2008 and performed best in heavily black counties where she lost overwhelmingly to Obama in 2008.

Conclusion

  • Racial attitudes and race had a different impact on Clinton's two presidential bids.
  • Without Obama on the ballot in 2016, Clinton's support increased significantly among blacks and racially liberal whites.
  • This improved standing among racial liberals allowed her to withstand a decline among racially conservative white voters and remain on track to win the Democratic nomination.