The End of History? The Collapse of the USSR, Yugoslav Wars, and the Rise of Putin

Theoretical Frameworks of the Post-Cold War World

• Francis Fukuyama and the "End of History" Thesis:   - Originally presented as an essay and later expanded into a book, the thesis posited that with the collapse of the Soviet Union and communism, history as a series of ideological struggles had ended.   - The Global Alternative: Communism was viewed as the last global alternative to liberal democratic capitalism.   - The Resulting World Order: Fukuyama suggested the world would embrace varieties of regulated welfare capitalism (European or American style) and that great ideological wars would cease to be the defining feature of the modern age.

• Samuel Huntington and the "Clash of Civilizations" Thesis:   - This served as the primary retort to Fukuyama, arguing that global conflict would persist due to incompatible civilizations rather than ideologies.   - The Islamic World: Huntington famously claimed that "Islam has bloody borders," suggesting perpetual hostility between the Islamic world and its neighbors.   - Civilizational Blocs: He identified various blocs, including the Orthodox world and the West (NATO/Europe), though the distinction between the latter two was sometimes debated.

The Decline of the Soviet Union and Gorbachev’s Paradox

• Gorbimania in the West: While Mikhail Gorbachev was celebrated abroad—winning Time Magazine’s "Man of the Decade" in $1990$ and the Nobel Peace Prize—he was increasingly unpopular and losing control within the USSR.
• Internal Violence and Flashpoints: Despite his reputation as a man of peace, Gorbachev’s tenure saw several instances of state-led violence and civil unrest:   - Almaty (December $1986$): Protests met with force.   - Tbilisi, Georgia ($1989$): Attacks on demonstrators.   - Baku, Azerbaijan ($1990$) and Yerevan, Armenia ($1990$): Major centers of unrest.   - Transnistria ($1991$): Conflict on the Moldovan border that became a frozen conflict.   - Nagorno-Karabakh: A bilateral conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan that intensified during this period.   - The Baltic States: Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia pushed for independence early on, leading to violent crackdowns in Riga and Vilnius (January $1991$).

Liberation and National Identities in the Republics

• The Baltic Human Chain: On August $23$, $1989$—the $50$-year anniversary of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (signed on August $23$, $1939$)—demonstrators formed a human chain linking the capitals of Riga, Tallinn, and Vilnius.
• Ukrainian Independence Movements:   - The movement Rukh spearheaded the push for sovereignty.   - A human chain was formed on January $21$, $1990$, marking the $81$-year anniversary of the temporary union/independence of Ukraine during the Russian Civil War.
• Historical Precedents of Independence: Many republics had experienced brief periods of independence between $1918$ and $1920$ (e.g., Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia) before being absorbed by the USSR.
• Central Asian Republics: Identity re-emergence expressed through linguistics and the abandonment of the Cyrillic alphabet in favor of the Latin alphabet, following the model of Kemal Atatürk in Turkey.

The Ascent of Boris Yeltsin

• Political Trajectory:   - Yeltsin was expelled as Moscow Party Boss in late $1987$ and removed from the Politburo in early $1988$.   - He became the symbol for liberal Russians seeking faster reform and a break from communism.
• The Russian Presidency: In June $1991$, the Russian Republic held its first popular elections for a new office, the Russian Presidency. Yeltsin won with over $57\%$ of the vote on the first ballot (compared to his $89.4\%$ earlier win in Moscow for the Congress of People’s Deputies).
• Anti-Communist Decrees: Upon taking office, Yeltsin banned Communist Party activities within the military and government, effectively stripping the party of its structural power.

The August Coup and the Final Collapse

• Gorbachev’s Move to the Right: Rumors circulated in late $1990$ that Gorbachev would align with hardliners like Ligachev. Eduard Shevardnadze, the Foreign Minister, famously resigned in December $1990$ with a warning of a "coming dictatorship."
• The August $1991$ Coup:   - The Plotters: Hardliners, including Vice President Yanayev and the head of the KGB, staged a coup while Gorbachev was under house arrest at his dacha in the Crimea.   - Incompetence: The coup plotters were described as drunken and disorganized; they reportedly ordered $250,000$ pairs of handcuffs but failed to arrest Yeltsin.   - Yeltsin’s Defiance: Yeltsin stood on a tank outside the "White House" (the Russian Parliament) and denounced the "anti-constitutional reactionary coup."   - Casualties: Only three people were killed during the standoff in Moscow.
• The End of Gorbachev: Following the failed coup, Yeltsin stripped Gorbachev of his perks (limos, phone lines, and offices) and eventually outlawed the Communist Party by decree.

The Dissolution of the USSR and the Early $1990$s

• Belovezha Accords: On December $25$, $1991$, the leaders of Russia (Yeltsin), Ukraine (Kravchuk), and Belarus (Shushkevich) met and formally dissolved the Soviet Union.
• Economic Chaos (Shock Therapy):   - Liberal price reformsled to immediate hyperinflation and the influx of Western consumer goods.   - Soviet gold and hard currency reserves effectively vanished by the end of $1991$.   - Anecdote: At the Madrid Conference in November $1991$, the Soviet delegation was reportedly unable to pay their hotel bills because they were broke.
• Trial of the Communist Party ($1992$): The party sued the government for being outlawed; the party actually won the trial on constitutional grounds and was reinstated as a legal political entity.

The Breakup and Wars of Yugoslavia

• Historical Grievances:   - Slobodan Milošević rose to power by tapping into Serbian nationalism, notably during the $1989$ anniversary (the $600$-year anniversary of the Battle of Kosovo in $1389$).   - WWII Origins: Tensions were rooted in the conflict between the Croatian Ustaše (aligned with the Axis) and the Serbian resistance. The existence of the SS Handžar Division (a Muslim Nazi SS unit) contributed to Serbian fears and historic victimhood.
• Fragmentation of the Republics:   - The Yugoslav Communist Party dissolved along ethnic lines in $1990$.   - Slovenia and Croatia declared independence first, often with early recognition from a recently unified Germany.   - Bosnia-Herzegovina: Declared independence in April $1992$. Because of its mixed population (Serbs, Croats, and Muslims), it became the site of the most intense fighting.
• International Response:   - Jacques Poos (Foreign Minister of Luxembourg) declared "The Hour of Europe has dawned," but Europe was unable to militarily intervene.   - The US Stance: The Bush administration’s James Baker stated, "We don't have a dog in the fight." Colin Powell’s "Powell Doctrine" necessitated clear objectives and exit strategies, which Yugoslavia lacked.

Escalation and The Dayton Accords

• The Siege of Sarajevo: A city that hosted the $1984$ Winter Olympics became a site of market square massacres and constant shelling by $1994$.
• Srebrenica Massacre (July $1995$): The massacre of approximately $7,000$ to $8,000$ people by Serbian forces in the presence of Dutch UN peacekeepers served as a catalyst for Western intervention.
• The Role of US Politics: Bill Clinton was hammered by Bob Dole in the $1995$ campaign for inaction in Bosnia.
• Dayton Accords (December $1995$): Negotiated by US official Richard Holbrooke, the accords ended the Bosnian war but left many borders and ethnic tensions unresolved.

NATO Expansion and the Kosovo War ($1999$)

• NATO Expansion Dates:   - On March $12$, $1999$, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland joined NATO.   - Just $12$ days later (March $24$, $1999$), NATO began its bombing campaign against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia over the province of Kosovo.
• The Kosovo Conflict:   - Serbia viewed Kosovo as sacred ground due to the Battle of Kosovo Polje ($1389$).   - NATO utilized the "Responsibility to Protect" doctrine (later championed by Samantha Power) to justify intervention against alleged Serbian ethnic cleansing.
• Thomas Friedman’s "Golden Arches Theory": Published just a week before the bombing, the theory proposed that no two countries with McDonald’s franchises would go to war. This was immediately disproven when NATO bombed Belgrade, which had four McDonald’s locations.
• The Chinese Embassy Bombing: During the campaign, NATO bombs hit the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, leading to theories of intentionality or corruption regarding Chinese influence in the Clinton administration.

The Rise of Vladimir Putin and the Second Chechen War

• The Shift in Russian Sentiments: The NATO bombing of Yugoslavia deeply offended Russians. Yevgeny Primakov, the Foreign Minister, famously ordered his plane to turn around over the Atlantic upon hearing the news.
• **The Crisis of 1999**:\n  - Yeltsin appointed **Vladimir Putin** (former KGB/FSB head) as Prime Minister.\n  - **Apartment Bombings**: A series of bombings in Russian cities were blamed on Chechen terrorists, providing the justification for the **Second Chechen War**.\n  - **The Ryazan Incident**: In the city of **Ryazan**, local police found bombs containing **hexogen** in an apartment basement. The truck was traced back to the FSB. The FSB later claimed it was a "training exercise" involving sacks of sugar.\n- **NATO Expansion (2004$–$2008)**: \n  - 2004: Seven countries joined, including the Baltic states (**Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania**), **Bulgaria**, **Romania**, **Slovakia**, and **Slovenia**.\n  - 2008: Membership was proposed for **Georgia** and **Ukraine**, leading to the Russian-Georgian war in the province of **Abkhazia**.\n\n# Questions & Discussion\n\n- **Student Query on Hillary Clinton and Serbia**: There is an urban legend/story that Hillary Clinton did not speak to Bill Clinton for nearly a year following the **Monica Lewinsky** scandal, but broke her silence to urge him to "bomb the Serbs."\n- **Response/Context**: While the influence of various figures (Dole, Hillary, etc.) is debated, it is noted that the Lewinsky scandal had other geopolitical links, such as the "Wag the Dog" retaliatory strikes against Al-Qaeda in Kenya and Afghanistan in August 1998 after the DNA evidence on the dress was revealed.\n- **Russian Humor**: During the winter of 1998$$, a popular cocktail in Moscow was the "Lewinsky Dress," consisting of blue curaçao and cream.