Rolling Forecast – Confidence %

Rolling Forecast - Stock Depletion Overview

  • Date: 15/11/2024

  • Company: Biesse

Agenda

  • 01 Rolling Forecast

  • 02 Rolling Forecast Methodology

  • 03 Workshop!

  • 04 Stock Depletion

Rolling Forecast Benefits

Benefits of Order Accuracy

  • Stock Projection: Enhances ability to predict inventory needs based on expected orders.

  • Informed Decisions: Facilitates strategic planning based on reliable data.

  • Resources Allocation: Optimizes planning and installation of resources based on projected needs.

  • Opportunities Likely to be Won: Analyzes sales potential over the next three months.

Key Metrics and Checks

HQ End of Month Procedures

  • Check Confidence: Measure of order winning probability (% of Winning Order).

  • Record Close Date: Documentation of expected order win date.

Current Forecast Accuracy

  • As of now, forecast accuracy is low.

  • Starting July, a corrective factor will be applied to the CTO forecast based on the weighted average accuracy of the last six months.

Signed Orders Forecast Types

CTO (Configurable to Order) Machines

  • Criteria:

    • Salesforce opportunities with a rolling forecast manager date within the next three months.

    • Short negotiations through Excel spreadsheets.

  • Projections:

    • For months 4 to 6 based on deviations from statistical forecasts.

    • From month 7 to year-end based on statistical forecasts.

  • KPIs: Generic deviation and weighted range deviation.

  • Target Deviation: 0%.

ETO (Engineering to Order) Machines

  • Criteria: Similar to CTO,

  • KPIs: Specific opportunity deviation.

  • Target Deviation: 0%.

Machine Lines

  • Criteria: Salesforce projects (T1-T3) with >80% confidence and closing in the next three months, or closing between 4th and 6th months with >60% confidence.

  • KPIs: Specific project deviation.

  • Target Deviation: 0%.

Confidence Calculator – Workshop

Confidence Spreadsheet Components

  • Money Available: Budget or financing options for machinery purchases.

  • Customer Perception: Loyalty and satisfaction with past performance.

  • Decision Maker's Agreement: Engagement with primary decision-makers regarding requirements.

  • Competition Analysis: Awareness of competitor presence and customer sentiment.

  • Solution Fit: Assess appropriateness of offered machines.

  • Price Fit: Evaluate pricing competitiveness.

  • Demo: Opportunity for customers to see machinery in action.

Stock Depletion Analysis

Stock Summary

  • Three months of tracking stock in and out.

  • Total Unsold Stock: $10,544,090.

  • Total Sold: $7,296,440.

  • Machines In Stock:

    • Estimated Arrival to Port, Avg. Age, etc. evaluated in intervals (0-3 months, 3-6 months, etc.).

Detailed Stock Information by Age and Material

Machines in Stock Breakdown

  • Glass:

    • Total: $875,584, 4 machines, aged avg. 210 days.

  • Stone:

    • Total: $1,030,737, 5 machines, aged avg. 290 days.

  • Wood:

    • Total: $5,182,532, 34 machines, aged avg. 247 days.

  • Plast:

    • Total: $207,587, 1 machine, aged avg. 7 days.

  • Grand Total of Machines in Stock: $10,544,092, 94 machines, aged avg. 261 days.

Summary of Stock Movement

  • Analysis presented in a concise format showing total machines, average age, and movement trends.

Conclusion

  • Summary insights and projection strategies to improve forecast accuracy moving forward.

  • Acknowledgment of challenges and areas for improvement in order management and stock handling.

Contact Information

  • Thank you from Biesse.

  • Website: biesse.com