Week 5

  • Military intervention(updated).pptx

    • Definition of Coup

      • Background

        • Coup: event where an existing regime is “suddenly and illegally displaced by a relatively small group, with key participation by military/police/security forces”

        • Many Francophone states (except Guinea, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire) experienced frequent coups in the 1960s–70s (Togo, Benin, etc.).

        • Nigeria and Ghana had repeated military takeovers from the mid-1960s.

        • By the end of 1985, Africa saw 61 successful coups and 73 failed attempts; by 2001, that climbed to 80 successful and 108 failed.

        • Military intervention remained the most common method for regime change up to the 1980s.

        • Even post-1990 democratization, coups persisted: 25 successful coups (and 60+ attempts) happened 1990–2013.

      • Ending a regime that endured for decades

        E.g., Colonel Ely Ould Mohamed Vall (Mauritania, 2005) ended a 21-year rule; Captain Dadis Camara (Guinea) ended a 24-year regime; Zimbabwe’s Mugabe ouster (37 years), Sudan’s Bashir (30 years)

      • Ending a regimes that were considered by the public as corrupted

        • Many 1960s coups were responses to civilian corruption or inefficiency.

        • Public often welcomed early coups, seeing the military as disciplined and less corrupt—at least initially.

      • Some coups tool power from dictators to set up a transition to electoral democracy

        • Some coups promised elections or reforms but ended up entrenching military power.

        • Risk: sets a precedent for the armed forces to overthrow future civilian regimes.

    • Domestic/International Reasons for Militrary Intervention

      • Economic Underpeformance

        • Persistent poverty, low growth → discontent fosters a breeding ground for coups.

        • Statistical correlation: countries with sustained growth have fewer coups; failing economies produce more.

        • Since 1990, 16 African countries with successful coups had an average cumulative growth of 4%, half the 8% in the rest of the continent (Englebert & Dunn, 2013).

      • Neopatrimonialism

        • Vertical patron-client networks revolve around personal loyalty, not institutions.

        • Military often feels excluded from patronage benefits or sees an opportunity to capture resources.

        • Coups become rent-seeking behavior, aiming to control state revenues (aid, natural resources).

      • Ethnic Factor

        • Multiethnic coalitions rule many African states, but fragile alliances often fail → suspicion rises, one group dominates.

        • Example: Nigeria (ethnic/regional divides) fosters internal competition among military officers from different regions.

      • Failure of Democratic Governments

        Democratic Governments Failing: Inability to deliver security or development → disillusionment among citizens → military steps in “to restore order.”

      • Frances Policy towards Francophone countries.

        • Out of 23 successful coups since 2000, 16 in former French colonies.

        • France’s deep interference, support of unpopular dictators to secure resources (like Niger’s uranium), fosters resentment, enabling the military to overthrow pro-French elites.

      • Shifting dynamics in the international system

        Rise of China and Russia as alternative backers (economic or security) reduces reliance on Western (French) support, emboldening militaries to seize power.

    • Consequence of military intervention

      • Authoritarianism, Corruption: Generals focus on loyalty, not expertise; government becomes more arbitrary and unprofessional.

      • Economic Mismanagement: E.g., Nigeria under Babangida (1985–93) and Abacha (1993–98) saw mass looting of oil revenues.

      • Factionalism within Militaries: Rulers recruit from their own ethnic/region, fuelling further division and repeated coups.

      • Human Rights Violations: E.g., Zimbabwe’s Gukurahundi killings of ~20,000 Ndebele in early 1980s.