U.S. Democratic Backsliding in Comparative Perspective

The global democratic recession of the past 20 years has been characterized by many elected leaders dismantling democracy incrementally. This process often involves centralizing power and undermining checks and balances, known as executive aggrandizement.
The second Trump presidency signifies a notable example of this as the U.S. shows signs of following a similar path of democratic erosion each compared to countries like Hungary, India, Poland, and Türkiye.
This paper analyzes U.S. political changes since Trump’s return to highlight both similarities and differences between the U.S. experience and other countries facing democratic backsliding.
Establishes that Trump's political agenda aligns with executive aggrandizement characterized by three interrelated levels:
1. Concentration of power within the executive branch.
2. Dominance of the executive branch over other government sectors.
3. Weakening societal constraints on executive power.
Compared with other cases, three factors of Trump’s administration are notable: focus on certain priorities, speed of implementation, and current severity levels of democratic erosion.

The past two decades mark a global trend of political leaders in many democracies adopting illiberal pathways, with concerns rising in the U.S. regarding its democratic health, particularly after Trump's second term.
Trump's first term raised alarms, especially after the events of January 6, 2021, when he attempted to overturn the election results.
Despite initial resilience, concerns have surged with Trump's return, due to actions that challenge democracy:
- Attacks against judges and Congress, repression of opponents, and exertion of political control over non-government institutions.
Political analysis is divided on whether Trump represents a severe risk to liberal democracy, with some drawing parallels to other backsliding regimes worldwide.

Executive aggrandizement: A political model where democratically elected leaders gradually undermine their own government’s democratic constraints.
Common tactics include:
- Weakening the judiciary and legislature.
- Politicization of prosecutorial power.
- Undermining electoral processes and censoring media.
- Gradual destruction of checks, often presented as reforms to strengthen democracy.
Variations in backsliding tactics occur based on domestic contexts and individual leader characteristics, which influence leaders' timing and scope of actions.

Supremacy within the Executive Branch: Trump's administration seeks to elevate presidential power, effectively enacting a unitary executive theory.
- Key actions include:
  - Weakening accountability structures within the executive branch.
  - Tightening control over independent agencies and bureaucracy.
  - Decreasing civil service independence by removing perceived opponents.
  - Examples include dismissals of inspectors general and reversal of ethics rules.
Executive Dominance Over Other Government Parts:
- Challenges to judiciary authority, Congressional authority, and state governance.
- Acts include defying court orders, undermining Congress's power, and targeting states with different policies.
Weakening Societal Constraints:
- Attacks on civil society by targeting independent media and organizing punitive actions against opposition lawyers and civic entities.
- Erosion of vertical checks on executive power includes actions against voting rights and election integrity.

The U.S. context is compared to democratic erosion in seven other nations with executive aggrandizement:
- Notable comparisons: Hungary, India, Poland, Türkiye, Brazil, Ecuador, El Salvador.
Focal Areas: Trump's administration is uniquely focused on intra-executive dominance versus broader institutional reforms seen elsewhere.
Rapidity: The administration acts quickly across multiple fronts compared to the slower, piecemeal approaches undertaken by other countries.
Severity: Current erosion in the U.S. is less severe than other countries, as foundational democratic institutions are not fully dismantled yet.

Unique priorities in Trump’s backsliding strategy:
- Focused primarily on dominating executive branches and delegitimizing horizontal institutions rather than direct institutional control seen in other countries.
- High reliance on federal funding as leverage against societal institutions and organizations.

Unprecedented quickness in enacting executive dominance, operating rapidly across multiple political levels.
Unlike other countries, actions taken by Trump contradict the expected gradualism characteristic of typical backsliding.
Promises and political control leveraged through threatened funding cuts exemplify the strategic approach.

While significant moves have been made, the level of democratic erosion does not reach the severity seen in many countries facing aggressive backsliding.
Factors contributing to current resilience include remaining institutional frameworks, checks and balances, and civic resistance to authority.

Trump’s executive aggrandizement is harmful yet reflects distinct strategies when compared globally.
While U.S. democratic norms remain intact to a degree, the aggressive speed and breadth of Trump’s actions indicate a serious threat to democracy.
Pro-democracy actions must be coordinated and respond to the simultaneous assaults on democratic institutions by Trump’s administration.
Ongoing focus is needed on leveraging existing institutional constraints to counter the executive aggrandizement throughout his term.