Population and Health: Comprehensive Notes

Chapter 2: Population & Health

Core Questions

  • How does population affect health?
  • How does health affect population?
  • What factors influence human population?
  • What are some possible effects of overpopulation?

Factors Influencing Population

  • Birth Rates
  • Death Rates
  • Immigration
  • Emigration

Possible Effects of Overpopulation

  • Increased demand for food, water, housing, and energy.
  • Increased demand for healthcare and transportation.
  • Depletion of natural resources.

Population Geography – Key Questions

  1. Will the Earth's population increase to a level that could lead to a global crisis?

  2. What patterns exist in the Earth’s populations and distributions?

  3. Why is population growing faster in some areas of the world than others?

  4. How have governments and religions attempted to influence population growth?

  5. How do geographers measure and study human population patterns?

    • More advanced societies tend to have fewer kids; less advanced have more (inverse property)
    • Catholic and Muslim regions: often have no birth control policies, leading to population increases.
    • Influence of crude death and birth rates on population dynamics.

Population Distribution

  • Distribution: Pattern of people across Earth's surface where they live.
  • Historically, people cluster around sustaining resources (e.g., bodies of water, farmland).
  • Few live in deserts or the tundra.
  • A large percentage of people on Earth live only on a small percentage of the Earth's surface (e.g., 5%).
  • Ecumene: The part of the Earth on which people can live.

Population Facts

  1. The world's population is growing by approximately an additional 83 million83 \text{ million}
  2. The global population is expected to reach 8.6 billion8.6 \text{ billion}
  3. The global population is expected to reach 11.2 billion11.2 \text{ billion}
  4. 50.4 \text{%}
  5. percent is male, & 49.6 \text{%}. Female
  6. is the most populous continent, with its 4.64 billion inhabitants accounting for 60% of the world population- Asia
  7. The world's two most populated countries, and _, together constitute about 36% of the world's population- China and India
  8. The country of currently has the youngest population of any country in the world- Niger
  9. The city state of _ is currently has the densest population in the world- Manoco
  10. The continent of population is growing, while the continent of __ population is shrinking- Africa and Europe
  11. Global /life expectancy is expected to continue growing, reaching _ years old by 2050- 77

Key Issues in Population and Health

  1. Where are people distributed?
  2. Why is population increasing?
  3. Why does health vary by region?
  4. Why might population change in the future?

Key Issue 1: Where Are People Distributed?

Subtopics
  • Population and Geography
  • Population Concentrations
  • Population Density
1) Population & Geography
  • The scientific study of population characteristics is demography.
  • Carrying capacity: The max population size of a spaces that the enviornment cansustain indefinitely
  • Overpopulation: Occurs when the of people exceeds the capacity of the enviornment to support life at a decent standard ofliving
1) Population & Geography

  • Carrying Capacity:

    • The number of people an area can sustain or support.

    • This relates to density.

    • The number of people an area can support relies on several factors:

      • Technology to bring resources from other places (e.g., water).
      • Housing, food supplies, education, and healthcare.
      • Being innovative increases regions carrying capacities – Israel creating irrigation systems to make arable land Japan electronics exports helps sustain its imports

  • Demography:

    • The study of human populations.
    • Geographers use demographic analysis to study spatial distributions of humans and their movements.
    • Size, composition, and growth of a country’s population affect its well-being.
    • Rapid increases in populations strain infrastructures.
Key Issue 1 Subtopic 2: Population Concentrations
  • There are four major population clusters:
    • East Asia
    • South Asia
    • Europe
    • Southeast Asia
  • Much of the Earth is sparsely populated:
    • Too cold (e.g., Arctic)
    • Too high (e.g., Himalayas)
Key Issue 1 Subtopic 2: Population Concentrations
  • Ecumene: The portion of Earth’s surface occupied by permanent human settlement
  • The portion of Earth’s surface occupied by permanent human settlement has increased.
Key Issue 1 Subtopic 3: Population Density
  • Density: The number of people in a particular land area. Used to study population distribution.
  • There are three measures of population density frequently used by geographers:
    • Arithmetic density: people/land area
    • Physiological density: people/arable land
    • Agricultural density: farmers/arable land
Key Issue 1 Subtopic 3: Population Density
  • The Netherlands has high arithmetic density.
  • Arithmetic density: The total # people divided by the total land area.
  • Arithmetic density can be deceptive because it does not show concentration patterns.
  • Ex: Egypt has an Arithmetic density of 177 people per square mile – however 98% of Egyptians live on 3% of the land near the Nile river
  • Arithmetic density:
    • Population of Minnesota 4,400,000
    • Minnesota is 84,000 square miles.
    • Therefore, Minnesota has an Arithmetic density of 52 people per square mile
Key Issue 1 Subtopic 3: Population Density
  • Physiological density is a measurement of population/arable land area.
  • Physiological density: The population divided by the number of square miles of farmland in a region.
  • In the U.S., the physiological density is 340 people per square mile.
  • In Japan the physiological density is 7,000 people per square mile.
  • amountof ppl per arableland
  • amount of ppl being fed per unit of land
Key Issue 1 Subtopic 3: Population Density
  • Agricultural density is a measurement of the number of farmers/arable land area.
  • Agricultural density: The number of farms on a piece of arable land.
  • High agricultural density means many farms on a piece of farmland.
  • Low agricultural density suggests the presence of larger farms
Key Issue 1 Subtopic 3: Population Density
  • Canada, Egypt, the Netherlands, and the United States have vastly different arithmetic, physiological, and agricultural population densities.
  • Arithmetic Density:
    * Canada: 44
    * Egypt: 9797
    * The Netherlands: 511511
    * United States: 3636
  • Physiological Density:
    * Canada: 8585
    * Egypt: 3,3503,350
    * The Netherlands: 1,6681,668
    * United States: 215215
  • Agricultural Density:
    * Canada: 0.80.8
    * Egypt: 208208
    * The Netherlands: 99
    * United States: 0.40.4
  • Percentage Farmers:
    * Canada: 22
    * Egypt: 2525
    * The Netherlands: 22
    * United States: 11
  • Percentage Arable Land:
    * Canada: 55
    * Egypt: 44
    * The Netherlands: 3030
    * United States: 1717
Practice Equations
  • Arable land sq km: 5.9%
  • Farmers: 0.32%
  • Arithmetic density: 38,654,738 / 9,879,750
  • Agricultural density Farmer Pop/Arable land: 582905
  • Physiological density Pop / Arable land: 1236

Key Issue 2: Why Is Population Increasing?

Subtopics
  • Natural Increase
  • Births and Deaths
  • The Demographic Transition
Key Issue 2 Subtopic 1: Natural Increase
  • The natural increase rate (N I R) = Crude Birth Rate - Crude Death Rate (expressed as a percentage).
  • The global N I R is currently 1.2, meaning the world is growing at a rate of 1.2% annually.
  • More than 95% of natural increase currently occurs in developing countries.
  • The number of years needed to double a population is called doubling time.
Key Issue 2 Subtopic 1: Natural Increase
  • The majority of population growth is in the developing world.
Key Issue 2 Subtopic 1: Natural Increase
  • Human population grew very slowly until the 1700s and then accelerated in the last two centuries.
Key Issue 2 Subtopic 1: Natural Increase
  • Even with a declining NIR, annual increase is about 85 million per year.
Key Issue 2 Subtopic 2: Births and Deaths
  • Natural increase occurs when births (fertility) exceed deaths (mortality).
  • Crude Birth Rate (CBR): Live Births……… /Total Population X 1000
    • Live BirthsTotal Population×1000\frac{ \text{Live Births}}{ \text{Total Population}} \times 1000
  • Crude Death Rate (CDR): # of Deaths in a year/ Total Population X 1000
    • Number of DeathsTotal Population×1000\frac{ \text{Number of Deaths}}{ \text{Total Population}} \times 1000
  • Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years
  • The infant mortality rate (IMR) is the annual number of deaths of infants under one year of age/ # of live births X 1000
    • Deaths of infants under 1 yearLive Births×1000\frac{ \text{Deaths of infants under 1 year}}{ \text{Live Births}} \times 1000
  • Natural increase depends on location and reflects more births than deaths.
Key Issue 2 Subtopic 2: Births and Deaths
  • What factors effect birth and death rates?
Key Issue 2 Subtopic 2: Births and Deaths
  • The highest birth rates are concentrated in Africa and Southwest Asia.
  • The highest TFR are in Africa and they match Southwest Asia.
Key Issue 2 Subtopic 2: Births and Deaths
  • The highest IMRs in 2018 are in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the lowest are in Europe.
  • Crude death rates do not follow the pattern of many other demographic statistics (i.e., they don't match IMRs).
Key Issue 2 Subtopic 3: Demographic Transition
  • The demographic transition is a process of change in a society’s population from high crude birth and death rates and low rate of natural increase to a condition of low crude birth and death rates, low rate of natural increase, and higher total population
Key Issue 2 Subtopic 3 Demographic Transition Model
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Key Issue 2 Subtopic 3: Demographic Transition
  • There are four stages in the demographic transition:
    • Stage 1: Low Growth (very high CBR and CDR, very low NIR)
    • Stage 2: High Growth (high CBR, rapidly declining CDR, very high NIR)
    • Stage 3: Moderate Growth (rapidly declining CBR, moderately declining CDR, moderate NIR)
    • Stage 4: Low Growth (very low CBR, low or slightly increasing CDR, low or negative NIR)
Key Issue 2 Subtopic 3: Demographic Transition
  • The Demographic Transition Model goes through four distinct stages.
    • Stage 1: Low Growth (very high C B R and C D R, very low N I R)
    • Stage 2: High Growth (high C B D, rapidly declining C D R, very high N I R)
    • Stage 3: Moderate Growth (rapidly declining C B R, moderately declining C D R, moderate N I R)
    • Stage 4: Low Growth (very low C B R, low or slightly increasing C D R, low or negative N I R)
Key Issue 2 Subtopic 3: Demographic Transition
  • The Demographic Transition Model goes through four distinct stages.
    • Stage 1: Low Growth (very high C B R and C D R, very low N I R)
      • Stage 1 of the DTM is known as the pre- agrarian period.
      • Birth rates and death rates are relatively high.
      • This stage is characterized by the number of deaths equaling the number of births, so there is no real growth.
      • Countries associated with this stage of the demographic transition include Somalia, Afghanistan, and Sierra Leone.
Key Issue 2 Subtopic 3: Demographic Transition
  • The Demographic Transition Model goes through four distinct stages.
    • Stage 2: High Growth (high CBR, rapidly declining CDR, very high NIR)
      • Stage 2 of DTM = the agrarian period
      • Agriculturally based societies use simple tools to plant and cultivate crops; no complex machines are used at this point because they had not yet been introduced to these countries.
      • As a direct result of agricultural activities there is an increase in the food supply
      • As people have more food to eat, the death rate begins to decrease.
      • The birth rate, however, remains relatively unchanged through most of Stage 2 because people do not change their social behavior.
      • In fact, the fertility rate usually increases as people live through childbearing age.
      • The total population begins an aggressive climb through Stage 2.
      • Countries in this stage of DTM include Guatemala & Vietnam
Key Issue 2 Subtopic 3: Demographic Transition
  • The Demographic Transition Model goes through four distinct stages.
    • Stage 3: Moderate Growth (rapidly declining CBR, moderately declining CDR, moderate NIR)
      • Stage 3 = the period of industrialization.
      • With the advent of complex machines (e.g., tractor, cotton gin, and spinning jenny), people were able to increase the production food and clothing.
      • More land could be cultivated in less time. People often used their extra time by pursuing educational opportunities or researching and developing new technology.
      • This new knowledge led to a general improvement in health care and sanitation, thus causing life expectancy to increase.
      • One result of industrialization on the population growth rate in many societies is that fewer children are needed as labor resources.
      • As social and economic priorities change due to a society becoming more economically developed, the family structure changes and the growth rate, or natural increase rate, slows down.
Key Issue 2 Subtopic 3: Demographic Transition
  • The Demographic Transition Model goes through four distinct stages.
    • Stage 4: Low Growth (very low CBR, low or slightly increasing CDR, low or negative NIR)
      • Stage 4 = highly mechanized and urbanized.
      • Farmers have access to advanced technology (e.g., computers on their tractors) and to migrant labor.
      • Women have different roles in society because many of them choose to obtain a college education and enter the work force. Most people jobs that require a college education or technical training.
      • These jobs are associated with higher wages.
      • Health care and level of education influence people’s decision to have fewer children.
      • The birth rate and the death rate are at similarly low levels, maintaining a slow population growth rate.
      • Countries in this stage of the demographic transition include the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia.
Key Issue 2 Subtopic 3: Demographic Transition
  • The Gambia has a very high crude birth rate. Stage 2 of the demographic transition: The Gambia.
Key Issue 2 Subtopic 3: Demographic Transition
  • Mexico has a declining crude birth rate and moderate NIR. Stage 3 of the demographic transition: Mexico.
Key Issue 2 Subtopic 3: Demographic Transition
  • Denmark has a very low crude birth rate and an aging population. Stage 4 of the demographic transition: Denmark.

Key Issue 3: Why Does Health Vary by Region?

  1. Medical Services
  2. Health and Gender
  3. Health and Aging
  4. Epidemiologic Transition
Key Issue 3: Subtopic 1 Medical Services
  • Health conditions vary dramatically between developed nations and developing nations
  • Developed nations
  • Developing nations
  • Hospital beds per 10,000 people provide an estimate of medical care availability.
  • spend 1000perpersonon health care annually
  • spend 100 perpersononhealth care annually
Key Issue 3: Subtopic 1 Medical Services
  • Physicians per 10,000 people are another estimate of medical care availability.
  • Health care expenditures are generally associated with longer life expectancies
  • Africa SWAsiahaslessDr s perpop
Key Issue 3: Subtopic 2 Health and Gender
  • Cultural and economic factors put women at risk
  • More males than expected in places
  • Sex ratio: # males/ 100 females
  • A normal sex ratio is 105:100
  • Maternal mortality rate: # pregnancy related female deaths/ 100,000 live births
    • pregnancy related female deaths100,000live births\frac{ \text{pregnancy related female deaths}}{ 100,000 \text{live births}}
Key Issue 3: Subtopic 2 Health and Gender
  • Worldwide maternal mortality range is dramatic, from fewer than 10 deaths to more than 500 per 100,000 live births.
  • Maternal mortality range is pronounced in the United States.
Key Issue 3: Subtopic 2 Health and Gender
  • China has a sex ratio of 114:100, indicating a cultural preference for boys.
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Key Issue 3: Subtopic 3 Health and Aging
  • Life expectancy is the average number of years an individual can be expected to live
  • The elderly support ratio is the number of working-age people (ages 15 to 64) divided by the number of persons 65 and older
Key Issue 3: Subtopic 3 Health and Aging
  • Worldwide there is more than a 20-year difference between the shortest- and longest-lived countries.
  • The United States displays significantly different age structures in different states.
Key Issue 3: Subtopic 3 Health and Aging
  • There are currently nine people working for every elderly person. That number is expected to decline to four people working for every elderly person by 2050.
Key Issue 3: Subtopic 3 Health and Aging
  • The dependency ratio is the number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
  • non- working age / 15 - 65 age
    • Number of people under 15 + Number of people over 65Number of people between 15 and 64\frac{ \text{Number of people under 15 + Number of people over 65}}{ \text{Number of people between 15 and 64}}
  • Stage 2 countries have large populations under the age of 15.
  • Stage 4 have large populations over the age of 65.
  • The dependency ratio is a helpful tool in analyzing the workforce and age distribution in a country – it shows the ratio between the dependents and the non dependents
  • People in a country between the ages 15-64 are considered nondependent/ they can support themselves (usually)
  • People older or younger than the work group are referred to as dependents
  • High dependency ratio (more dependent than working) can lead to problems:
  • Fewer workers to pay taxes to support health care & Social Security
  • Sometimes called “Graying Population”
Key Issue 3: Subtopic 3 Health and Aging
  • Sub-Saharan Africa has high percentages of the population under age 15.
Key Issue 3: Subtopic 3 Health and Aging

  • What can you learn from population pyramids?

    • Size of dependent populations
    • Birth rate / death rate
    • Gender makeup
    • Life expectancy
    • Size of economically active populations

  • This is very handy when analyzing a country’s stage in the demographic transition model (DTM). It is the process of change in a society’s population from a condition of high crude birth and crude death rates, and low rates of natural increase, to a condition of low crude birth and crude death rates, low rate of natural increase, and higher total population.

Population Pyramids
  • AKA as age-sex structures
  • A group of people the same age is referred to as a cohort
  • A cohort is split between men and women
  • These structures are inverted bar graphs that show a wide base (younger population) with a narrow top (older population)
  • The wider the base the larger % of young people in the community
  • If the structure is top heavy larger % of the elderly
  • Population Pyramids can help predict growth of populations
  • Women usually have children between the ages of 15 – 40. The more women in that age range the higher the birth rate
Key Issue 3: Subtopic 3 Health and Aging
  • A Stage 2 country will have a population pyramid with a wide base, indicating a young population – why?
  • A Stage 4 country will have a relatively wide top, indicating a country with a large elderly population – why?
  • Population pyramids display a population’s age and sex structure.
Key Issue 3: Subtopic 4 Epidemiologic Transition
  • The epidemiologic transition focuses on distinctive health threats in each stage of the demographic transition:
    • Stage 1: Pestilence and Famine
    • Stage 2: Receding Pandemics
    • Stage 3: Degenerative Diseases
    • Stage 4: Delayed Degenerative and Lifestyle Diseases
Epidemiologic Transition Model
  • This model has the same four stages as the DTM – however it focuses on causes of death in each stage.
    • Stage One: Countries are usually affected by pandemics – i.e.: Black Plague
    • Stage Two: Diseases that are associated with over crowding in massive movement to cities – i.e.: Cholera
    • Stage Three & Four: are diseases most associated with the growing elderly – i.e.: Diabetes
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Key Issue 3: Subtopic 4 Epidemiologic Transition
  • Cholera outbreaks have recently occurred in Sub- Saharan Africa, South Asia, and the Caribbean.
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Key Issue 3: Subtopic 4 Epidemiologic Transition
  • Cancer is a more common cause of death in countries that are in stage 3 or later of the demographic transition.
  • Opioid addiction-related deaths occur almost exclusively in countries that are in stage 4 of the demographic transition
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Key Issue 4: Why Might Population Change in the Future?

  1. Population Futures
  2. Family Futures
  3. Epidemiologic Futures
Key Issue 4 Subtopic 1 Population Futures
  • Demographers predict a possible Stage 5 of the demographic transition for some developed countries.
    • very low CBR
    • increasing CDR
    • declining NIR
  • Projections are based on three possible future world TFRs.
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Key Issue 4 Subtopic 1 Population Futures
  • The fifth stage of the demographic transition will feature a negative NIR.
  • Japan faces a population structure with many older people and few of working age.
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Key Issue 4 Subtopic 1 Population Futures
  • A pronatalist policy is a government policy that supports higher birth rates (ex China, India)
  • An antinatalist policy is a government policy that supports lower birth rates (ex Japan)
  • Chinese and Indian family planning wall art.
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Key Issue 4 Subtopic 1 Population Futures
  • Pronatalist Population Policies:
    • Also called expansive policies
    • They encourage families to have more children
    • Tax breaks for families with children and anti abortion laws are considered pronatalist
  • Eugenic Population Policies:
    • Encourages the reproduction of only certain groups of people and discourages the growth of others
    • Hitler encouraged the growth of his country’s Aryan population. He rewarded Aryan women with money and public recognition for having as many babies as possible
  • Antinatalist Population Policies:
    • These policies encourage the reduction in fertility rates. Sometimes called restrictive policies
    • India has adopted antinatalist approaches to reduce fertility rates..
      • Abortion and contraception is readily accessible
    • In the 1980s China has adopted antinatalist approaches to reduce fertility rates.
      • One child policy – punished families for having more than one child
      • This led to female infanticide – families wanted male babies to carry on the family name
      • Males also hold the earning power in society - boys would earn more money for the family
Key Issue 4 Subtopic 2 Family Futures
  • The lowest rates of family planning correlate with the highest NIR, CBR, and TFR.
  • Preferred methods of family planning vary from place to place.
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Key Issue 4 Subtopic 2 Family Futures
  • What causes CBR to decrease?
    • Education and health care: women empowered; higher investment in each child
    • Contraception: not always available; supply can help decrease CBR
  • CBRs have declined around the world with few exceptions.
  • Women talk about birth control at a reproductive health clinic in Cambodia.
Key Issue 4 Subtopic 2 Family Futures
  • Jean Antoine Condorcet (1743 – 1794)
    • He was a French philosopher mathematician and early political scientist.
    • He predicted that innovation resulted in increased wealth and choice.
    • This would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family.
  • Thomas Malthus on Population Growth
    • An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798
    • Malthus, responding to Condorcet, predicted population would outrun food supply, leading to a decrease in food per person.
    • He advocated birth control and celibacy – which he called positive checks
    • He warned against negative checks – war, starvation and disease
Key Issue 4 Subtopic 2 Family Futures
  • Neo-Malthusians today: Population will ultimately exceed food or another resource (and already has in selected regions of the developing world)
  • China’s food production has outpaced population growth, while African food production is barely enough to outpace population growth.
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Critics of Malthusian Theory
  • Critics say that Malthus could not predict the future. He could not have predicted the following:
    • Improved fertilization techniques
    • Genetic modification
    • Modern farming equipment
  • These advances flaw his theory
  • Karl Marx
    • Marx said the problem was not the population growth rate rather the unequal distribution of resources and wages
  • Ester Boserup
    • His theory contrasted with both Malthus and Marx. He believed the overpopulation problem could be solved by increasing the number of subsistence farmers
Key Issue 4 Subtopic 3 Epidemiologic Futures
  • Stage 5 of epidemiologic transition: infections and parasitic diseases re-emerge
    • Evolution: antibiotic resistance
    • Poverty: lack access to medicine
    • Connections: globalization helps transmission
Key Issue 4 Subtopic 3 Epidemiologic Futures
  • Malaria is found primarily in tropical regions of developing countries and has become more drug-resistant.
  • Tuberculosis is expensive to treat, so deaths are concentrated in the world’s poorer regions.
Key Issue 4 Subtopic 3 Epidemiologic Futures
  • HIV has diffused around the world through people moving and traveling.
  • HIV diffused through the United States through major international connections such as airports

Sparsely settled Areas

  • Humans usually avoid clustering- few ppl live in regions that are too dry, too wet, too cold, or too mountainous for agriculture.
    • Cold lands: North and south Pole has ice and ground is permanently frozen with no place for agriculture, few animals, and few humans
    • Mountainous lands: too steep, snow covered. Low latitudes with agriculture are possible at high elevations, and are densely populated.
    • Wetlands: high levels of precipitation, located near equator; ex: amazon rainforest, everglades in Florida. Lots of agriculture
    • Dry lands: no agriculture, 20% of Earth's surface; ex: Sahara, Gobi deserts. Lack of water, more natural resources

Population concentrations

  • 2/32/3s of the world's inhabitants are clustered in 4 regions: East Asia, South Asia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
    • Africa has several concentrations
    • The largest pop. concentration is in the Western and Northeastern US and Southeastern Canada.

4 Pop. Clusters

  1. Europe: highest pop. concentrations, near major rivers in Germany and Belgium and capitals like London and Paris
  2. East Asia: China has been the world's most populous country for a long time. It's the 4 largest country in land area, but most of the population is settled at the Pacific coast and in fertile river valleys, inland.
  3. South Asia: Most of the pop. lives along the plains of the Indus and Ganges rivers and concentrated near india's coastlines
  4. Southeast Asia:

Population, Health, & Geography

  • Demography is the scientific study of population characteristics
  • Demographers can tell us with some precision the historic and current population of the world and that of particular places.

Population & Resources

  • Carrying capacity is the maximum population size of a species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the available resources such as food and water.
  • Overpopulation occurs when the number of people exceeds the capacity of the environment to support life at a decent standard of living.
  • Overpopulation can be a threat to some regions of the world but not in others. The regions with the most people are not the same as the regions with an unfavorable balance between population and resources.

Population Portions

  • The world can be divided into seven population portions, each containing more than 1 billion people.

Population Cartogram

  • Depicts the sizes of countries according to population rather than land area.

High & Low Population Concentrations

  • The ecumene the areas of Earth that humans consider too harsh for occupancy have diminished over time, whereas the portion of Earth's surface occupied by permanent human settlement