Known Unknowns: Power Shifts, Uncertainties, and War and Iraq War

Abstract

• argument trying to disprove: large and rapid power shifts resulting from external economic growth —> war

• their argument: internal/endogenous military investment —> thee large and rapid power shift —> war. so, imperfect information is a cause of war

  • so, when military investment is transparent, peace prevails and deters preventive war

• when investments undetected, states will take that as a threat and strike peventively without conclusive evidence of militarization

• more effective preventive wars are, more likely they will be launched against states not militarizing