UNIT 5: Political Participation
METHODS OF POLITICAL ANALYSIS
Expanding political participation opportunities
15th Amendment
Right to vote guaranteed regardless of race or ethnicity (African-Americans get the right to vote)
17th Amendment
Direct election of senators
19th Amendment
Right to vote guaranteed regardless of sex (Women get the right to vote)
24th Amendment
Poll taxes may not be used, people can’t be forced to pay money to vote - extends today to voter ID law requirements that force people to pay for the ID.
26th Amendment
Right to vote guaranteed for those 18 or older (Can’t be sent to war without having a say in who the representatives are - Vietnam)
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Political models
Models that predict the voting behavior,and reasoning, of citizens - include rational choice, retrospective, prospective and party-line voting
Rational-choice voting
Voting based on a person’s perceived self-interest, not common
Prospective voting
Voting based on predictions of how a party or candidate will perform in the future. (common among more educated people)
Retrospective voting
Voting based on whether a candidate or party has performed well enough to be re-elected (reward or punish those currently in power, most common)
Party-line voting
Voting based on party identification across all offices. This is in contrast to split ticket voting, where voters vote for candidates from different parties on a single ballot.
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Structural barriers
Historical (now illegal) - white primaries, literacy tests, poll taxes, grandfather clauses
Today - registration!!!, gerrymandering, photo identification, mail-in ballots, number of polling places
Voter turnout
-Presidential elections - 60% of eligible citizens; 85% of registered voters
-Midterm elections - usually 40% but higher recently, around 45% - lean Republican, unless Democrats are highly motivated
-Europe - has automatic voter registration so they average an 85% turnout rate. Note: when people say the US has low voter turnout they are comparing US eligible voters to European registered voters. They are similar if comparing just registered voters.
-Motor Voter Law - federal requirement that state Department of Motor Vehicles allow people to register to vote when getting a driver's license - some states (like NY) have extended this to "pre-register" 17 year olds because they were getting licenses without registering when 17 and therefore we're less likely to be registered.
State voter registration laws
All states require voters to register. This is to guard against voter fraud. Citizens must re-register when they move. These registration laws are biased in favor of older homeowners, and against younger people and poorer people who tend to move more frequently.
Voting procedures
-Citizens cast ballots using voting machines. Some of these machines are electronic, which leads to controversy if people think they can be hacked. Therefore, most machines today produce a paper receipt for election officials and voters to see. In New York, voting machines use scan sheets that voters bubble in so that there is a paper ballot and a quick electronic count. The voting machine method tends to favor Republican candidates because Republicans prefer to show up and vote on election Day.
-Mail-in ballots are also used. They require a reason for voters to be able to use them. For example, members of the military, disabled people, and college students are allowed to use mail-in ballots. During COVID, mail-in ballot eligibility was expanded. Mail-in ballots tend to favor Democratic candidates. As COVID has died down, Republican states have decreased access to mail-in ballots, claiming that they are used to promote voter fraud. While there are some cases of this, there is no evidence of widespread fraud that would overturn an election. Debates continue regarding whether increasing or decreasing access to mail-in ballots effects the level of democracy in a given state.
General elections
The Tuesday after the first Monday in November, when offices are on the ballot at the state and national level.
Presidential v. Mid-term elections
Presidential elections happen every 4 years when the office of the presidency is on the general election ballot. Voter turnout is about 60%. Mid-term election happen every 4 years at the midpoint of a president’s term. Elections that happen between presidential elections. Voter turnout is about 40%. Both of these percentages increase when elections are highly contested. For example, the 2020 presidential election had a voter turnout of 66%, and the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections had 50% and 46% turnout, respectively.
Demographic characteristics
Characteristics of voters, which can be used to identify differences in voting behavior. These include race, ethnicity, religion, age, education level, socioeconomic status, gender, region. African Americans are strongly support democrats. Hispanic, Jewish, younger, college educated, Northeast and Western, middle-class, and female voters tend to support Democrats. White, Christian, older, wealthy and poor, lower levels of education (high school, junior/community college), Midwest and Southern, males tend to support Republicans. These demographic tendencies can shift over time, as has been seen with Black men shifting Republican (though still voting overwhelmingly Democratic, at 84% compared to 92% previously).
Political efficacy
External efficacy is when people feel they can affect the political process, that their opinion matters, and that government officials care about people like them. Internal efficacy is when people feel they can understand the political system.
Party identification
A person self-identifying as more of a Democrat or Republican.
Ideological orientation
A person self-identifying as more liberal, conservative, or libertarian. Family is the most important factor influencing view of political culture (values and expectations regarding the political system) and ideological orientation - 50% chance people are the same as their family, 40% chance they are independent, 10% chance they are the opposite ideology.
Candidate characteristics
Traits that appeal to voters, such as education (legal), experience (political, business, military), age, appearance, speaking ability…
Contemporary political issues
Dominant issues of the day, like immigration, national security (NATO, China, North Korea, Middle East), debt/deficit, crime, climate change/alternative energy, trade, international relations…
Religious belief/affiliation
Protestant white/Republican, Jewish/Democrat
Gender
Male/Republican, Female/Democrat
Race/Ethnicity
White/Republican, African American/85% Democrat, Hispanic and Asian/democrat
Polls - use random samples of populations to measure the opinions and views of Americans
Veracity (true) v. Reliability (repeatable) - poll veracity is how true a poll is, whereas a poll that is reliable is repeatable, but it can still be wrong. Sometimes using polling methods, like phone calls, can be repeated but are wrong because they don’t do online or cell phones that measure more young people.
Benchmark polls - polls taken at a point in time, like presidential approval ratings at the beginning of every term.
Tracking polls - polls designed to be taken over time to track a change - like candidate preferences before an election
Opinion polls - polls designed to measure opinion, sometimes tracked over time
Exit polls - polls given as voters leave polls on election day to measure the will of the people who actually vote.