Climate Change

Practice: Which is a sign (not a symptom) of disease?

  1. Nausea

  2. Tumors in the lung

  3. Fatigue

  4. Muscle aches

  5. None of the above



What’s the Consensus?

  • World’s climate has started to change already

  • Will continue to change in coming decades

Where’s the debate?

  • Exact details about what’s going to happen



Greenhouse Effect

  • Greenhouse gases: transparent to sunlight but traps energy

  • Carbon dioxide, methane

  • Time lag: each CO2 molecule stays in atmosphere 100 years



Methane

  • Agriculture

    • rice fields

    • livestock flatulence

  • Natural gas

    • leaky oil & gas operations

  • Melting permafrost

  • Concentrations increased by 3% over last 8 years

  • Warms atmosphere 30X faster than CO2

  • Mixing seaweed in with livestock feed

  • Reduced methane emissions by >85% in sheep and 50% in cows



Global Warming

  • Increased temp from greenhouse effect

Global Climate Change

  • Climate characteristics that are changing

  • Precipitation, wind



Common (mis)conceptions 



But it’s cold outside!!

  • Weather: day to day

  • Climate: how the atmosphere behaves over long periods

  • Polar vortex escaping from poles

  • Less temp difference between north & tropics

  • Jet stream weakened



But this is part of normal cycling!!

  • Pleistocene: alternating glacial & interglacial

  • Cycle of ~100,000 years: 8 long periods of glaciation followed by brief, warmer periods of interglaciation

Current Warming is happening faster

  • Peak interglacial: 5°C cooler than current average temps



Who cares about a few degrees??

  • Best-case scenario: 2-2.5° warming by 2100

  • Most likely scenario: 3° warming



What does a warming planet look like?



Heat Death

Location

Year

# Dead

Europe

2003

35,000

Russia

2010

55,000

India

2015

2,300

Chicago

1995

739



  • Urban heat islands

  • Burden on electrical systems

  • Richer countries will fare the best



Wildfire

  • Arctic fires

    • Greenland 2014, 2017

    • Sweden 2018

    • Soot & ash blacken ice sheets = faster melting

  • Trees releasing their stored carbon



Freshwater Drain

  • 71% of the planet is water; ~2% freshwater

  • ½ of the world’s population depends on snow melt

  • Aral Sea in central Asia (4th largest lake): has lost > 90% of its volume



Climate change in WV

  • Warmer temperatures

  • Shorter winters

  • Increased precipitation

  • Increased humidity



Specific Responses



1st Species Extinction Due to Climate Change

  • Bramble Cay melomys (Melomys rubicola)



Practice: Which ones will be the quickest adaptors?

A. Plants

B. Birds

C. Fish

D. Mammals

E. Herps (amphibians/reptiles)



Can Species Adapt?

  • Morphological changes

    • white-throated woodrat got 16% smaller

  • Phenological shifts – changes in timing

  • Changes in community interactions

  • Range shifts

  • Community reassembly

  • Reptiles: sex determined by temperature

  • Map turtles: 

    • < 28°C – only males

    • > 30°C – only females



Problems with Adaptation

  • Current populations already stressed

  • Fragmented landscapes

  • Longer range shifts – geographic bottlenecks



Assited Migration??

  • Translocation of species to novel ecosystems in anticipation of range shifts forced by climate change

  • Quino checkerspot butterfly

  • Host plant dries out in warm temps

  • ¾ of pops at lower latitudes had gone extinct

  • Climate envelope models