CP - week 11

Lecture Overview

• Topic: Determinants of Civil Conflict

• Instructor: Mathilde Emeriau

• Semester: Fall 2024

Increase in Civil Conflicts

• Trend: Significant increase in the number of civil conflicts since 2010.

• Types of Conflicts:

  • Interstate Conflicts: Conflicts between states with at least 25 fatalities in a year.

  • Intrastate Conflicts: Conflicts between a state and non-state armed groups within its territory, causing at least 25 deaths.

  • Extrasystemic Conflicts: Between states and non-state groups outside their territory, also with a death toll of 25.

  • Non-state Conflicts: Involving armed groups other than state forces.

  • One-sided Violence: Armed force used by a state or non-state groups against civilians, resulting in at least 25 civilian deaths.

• Data Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program (2023).

Determinants of Civil Conflict

• Key Factors:

  • Poverty

  • State Weakness

  • Ethnic Diversity

Detailed Outline

1. Poverty

2. State Weakness

3. Ethnic Diversity

4. Explaining Conflict

5. Explaining Interethnic Peace

Theoretical Framework on Income and Conflict

• Income Effects:

  • Opportunity Cost Effect:

    • Higher income reduces the appeal of fighting due to lost wages.

  • Rapacity Effect:

    • Higher income increases fighting potential as there is more to fight over.

• Reference Study: Dube & Vargas (2013).

Observable Implications

• Opportunity Cost:

  • Labor-intensive good prices rise --> conflict decreases.

• Rapacity:

  • Natural resource prices increase --> conflict increases.

Empirical Evidence from Colombia (1988-2005)

• Study Context: Analyzed 950 municipalities during civil war.

• Variables Studied:

  • Coffee and oil production municipalities.

  • Price fluctuations of coffee and oil during conflict periods.

Insurgencies and Civil Conflict

• Insurgency Defined:

  • Small, lightly armed groups using guerrilla warfare.

• Favorable Conditions for Insurgencies:

  • Insurgents' ability to hide from government forces (e.g., rough terrain).

  • Weaker opposing government.

Ethnic Diversity and Civil Conflicts

• Conventional Wisdom:

  • Many civil wars post-Cold War stem from ethnic and religious antagonisms.

• Theories Linking Ethnicity and Conflict:

  1. Primordialist Accounts:

     • Deep cultural and psychological ethnic cleavages.

  2. Organizational Capacity:

     • Ethnic networks facilitate coordination and may create exclusionary practices.

  3. Exclusion from Power:

     • Groups feeling marginalized seek conflict amid economic growth.

Measuring Ethnic Diversity

• Ethnic Fractionalization:

  • Probability that two individuals are from different ethnic groups.

• Formula: ( F = \sum_{i=1}^n \frac{N_i}{N} \frac{N_j}{N} )

• Insights:

  • More groups increase fractionalization; equal group sizes impact the index.

Weaknesses of Ethnic Fractionalization

• Concerns with the ELF Index:

  • Maximized if everyone belongs to a different group.

  • Suggests greater conflict likelihood, despite group sizes being crucial.

• Polarization Measure: New approach focusing on potential antagonisms and group sizes.

Relationship Between ELF and Polarization

• Both indices linked:

  • Identical if group identity and intergroup differentiation are unimportant.

  • Context of conflict influences which index to use (public vs. private prizes).

Conditions for Long-term Inter-Ethnic Peace

• Complementarity of Goods:

  • Locals and non-locals must provide complementary goods.

• Robust Complementarities:

  • Difficult to replicate, leading to economic cooperation.

• Decreased Competition:

  • Limits violence incentives based on asset control.

Long-term Peace Case Study**:

• Hindu-Muslim Relations in South Asia:

  • Key conditions for peaceful coexistence explored.

Exam Preparation Summary

• Focus Areas:

  • Different explanations for civil conflict: income, state weakness, ethnic diversity.

  • Understand ethnic fractionalization vs. polarization.

  • Conditions favoring inter-ethnic trust.