Money Supply and Demand Overview
Money Supply Definitions
- Monetary Base (High Powered Money)
- Narrow (M0): Cash outside Central Bank ~ £94bn (4% GDP)
- Wide (M1-3): Cash + banks’ operational deposits with Central Bank
- Broad Money (M4): M0 + deposits in retail and wholesale banks, sterling certificates, sight and time deposits ~ £3tn (132% GDP)
Complications in Money Supply
- Variability in bank liquidity needs due to seasons/economic climate.
- Inclusion of various bank liabilities complicates liquidity assessment.
Determinants of Money Supply
- Central Bank Behavior: Creates new money when low levels of money supply are observed.
- Household Behavior: Allocation of wealth affects bank multiplier and money supply.
- Bank Behavior: Liquidity ratios impact money supply.
- International Finance: Inflows/outflows of funds affect money supply size.
- Government Budget Deficits: Central Bank financing through securities can increase money supply.
Money Supply and Interest Rate
- Conventional theory: Money supply is exogenous and independent of interest rates.
- Alternative models (Keynesian/Post-Keynesian): Money supply may increase with rising interest due to demand for credit.
- Higher interest rates can lead to an increase in deposits from abroad.
Determinants of Money Demand
- Transactions Motive: More transactions increase money demand.
- Precautionary Motive: Hold cash for unexpected needs.
- Speculative Motive: Hold cash while waiting for lower asset prices.
Liquidity Preference**
- Cash: Liquid but low return.
- Bonds/Shares: Illiquid but higher potential returns.
- Trade-off between liquidity and returns.
Money Demand (L)
- Total Money Demand: L = L1 + L2
- L1: Transaction and precautionary demand, affected by income and interest rates.
- L2: Speculative demand, influenced by expectations and interest rates.
Money Market Equilibrium
- Equilibrium occurs when total money demand equals total money supply.
- Average interest rates reflect various asset demands.
Quantity Theory of Money
- Formula: MV = PY
- M: Money supply
- V: Velocity of circulation
- P: Price level
- Y: Real GDP
- Changes in money supply can impact price levels when GDP and velocity are constant.