The Green Great Game Is This Century’s Space Race – The Diplomat

Introduction

The ongoing "Green Great Game" is emerging as a crucial geopolitical rivalry centered around access to raw materials vital for the energy transition. It resembles the historical space race of the Cold War era, reflecting global competition to innovate and control supply chains integral to green technologies.

The Green Great Game Overview

The term "Green Great Game" encapsulates the race for critical minerals and technology essential for achieving net-zero emissions by 2040. Demand for minerals, including rare earths, copper, aluminum, and titanium, has doubled within five years, highlighting the urgency for countries to secure these resources amid an evolving energy landscape.

Historical Context

As nations prepare for the COP28 global climate conference, geopolitical tensions are escalating rather than diminishing. The energy transition is no longer viewed as a collaborative venture but a platform for competition, reminiscent of the dynamics seen in the space race.

Geoeconomic Rivalry

The competition manifests itself through a concept termed "green protectionism," where economic security dominates national policy agendas. Governments are employing industrial policies, including local production initiatives and research funding, to bolster their competitive edge in critical supply chains.

National Strategies

  • China: Leading the charge with plans like "Made in China 2025" and "dual circulation" strategies, China is a key player in harnessing critical resources.

  • United States: The Inflation Reduction Act and the Defense Production Act aim to stimulate domestic green technology manufacturing, alongside international collaborations designed to secure critical resources.

  • European Union: With the Net Zero Industry Act, investments in green technologies are promoted, and Europe aims for self-sufficiency in resource processing despite existing challenges.

  • India: Through tariffs on solar components and production-linked incentives, India seeks to enhance its green tech capabilities.

Supply Chain Dynamics and Initiatives

Emerging resource-rich countries are adopting protectionist policies to retain control over their exports. For instance:

  • Canada: Banned certain Chinese companies from lithium projects, citing national security risks.

  • Indonesia: Imposed bans on exporting unprocessed nickel and other relevant materials.

  • Latin America: Countries are looking to establish cartels for lithium to manage production and prices.

Collaborative Efforts

Countries are forming alliances, such as "critical minerals buyers' clubs" and partnerships like the U.S.-led Mineral Security Partnership, to enhance collective efforts in securing supply chains. This shift indicates a move away from relying solely on hostile nations amid rising tensions.

The Role of Private Sector

Private companies are adapting by diversifying supply chains, securing raw material agreements, and pursuing vertical integration. Industries like automotive are significantly investing in supplier relationships for critical components of electric vehicles (EVs).

Geopolitical Implications of the Green Transition

The energy transition intensifies existing geopolitical conflicts, exemplified by Afghanistan and resource-rich regions across the globe. Countries like Ukraine, which produce crucial materials for green technologies, are becoming focal points amid ongoing struggles. Furthermore, both the Pacific and deep-sea mining represent new frontiers in resource competition.

Emerging Conflicts

  • Afghanistan: Known as the "Saudi Arabia of lithium," its instability may worsen because of foreign interests vying for its mineral wealth.

  • Kashmir: Recent lithium discoveries present opportunities but also pose risks amid longstanding geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan.

  • Pacific Region: Nations are racing for resource control, with environmental and political ramifications.

Conclusion

The "Green Great Game" underscores the complexity of achieving sustainable energy commitments in the context of intensified geopolitical rivalry. As countries push to decarbonize and ensure energy security, the race for critical raw materials will undoubtedly shape the geopolitics of the 21st century. The intersection of energy transition efforts and national interests suggests a competitive landscape that may either hinder or hasten global sustainable progress, paralleling historical precedence seen during the Cold War.