Notes from Blackboard
Dominant Theories of International Relations
Realism
state as the primary actor in international politics
international politics is characterized by anarchy
state pursue power expressed as interest
security dilemma
Liberalism
human nature is good
human beings are rational
the centrality of collective interest
the role of institutions in the pursuit of collective interest, maintenance of peace and conflict resolution
International Law
treaties or international agreements and diplomatic practice as a guide to inter-state relations
Globalization of the Economy (Agents of Economic Globalization)
Finance - the flow of money in and out of the country
Manufacturing
Trade
Transportation
Energy
Agriculture
Neoliberalism
1700s
open trading (free trade)
trade barriers: tariff, quota
1997 Asian Financial Crisis
a period of financial crisis that gripped much of East and Southeast Asia during the late 1990s.
began in Thailand in July 1997 as the Tom Yum Kung crisis
followed the financial collapse of the Thai baht after the government depleted its foreign exchange reserves
causes were related to the export-led growth of nations requiring the governments to cooperate with the manufacturers of export products which included the pegging of currencies to the U.S dollars to ensure that the exchange rate was favorable to all parties
However, the U.S began increasing their interest rates due to inflationary pressure, making Asia less attractive for hot money flows
Thailand stopped pegging their Thai baht to the US dollar, making them enter into an “asset bubble” — which occurs when assets suddenly and drastically rise in price even though the value of the asset does not fall in line with its sudden increase in value. Because of this, they needed more and more money to keep the bubble from popping.
As Thailand stopped pegging their currency, other state currencies devalued
Asian Economic Miracle: Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, and South Korea experienced high growth rates of 8-12% GDP in the late 1980s and the early 1990s.
Before the crisis, there were the “Tiger Economies” or countries with impressive economic growth rates
Four Asian Tigers: South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong (1960s to 1990s)
How was the crisis solved?
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) helped bail out nations that needed funds to stabilize their economies
lended 110 billion dollars in short-term loans to Indonesia, Thailand, and South Korea
2008 Global Financial Crisis
the catalyst was a downturn in the US housing market
many banks around the world incurred large losses and relied on government support to avoid bankruptcy.
How it happen?
Investors are looking for a low-risk, high-return investment so they started throwing their money at the U.S. housing market.
mortgage - a contract held by the bank (initially, if they lend the loan to the borrower) resulting from a borrower borrowing loans from the bank to buy houses. Every month, the borrower must pay a portion of the principal money plus interest, but if they fail to do so, it results in a default.
the bank often sells mortgages to third parties to avoid risks.
Mortgage Backed-Securities
created when large financial institutions securitize mortgages. They’d buy thousands of individual mortgages, bundle them up and repackage them and sell shares of that to investors.
default - the one holding the mortgage will own the house
borrowers took advantage of low mortgage rates to buy homes
during the housing bubble, the banks sold these loans to the big Wall Street banks, which repackaged and marketed them as low-risk financial instruments such as mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs).
because they’ve seen high returns from these mortgages and was even marked as “safe investments”, more investors are desperate to buy these securities, hence, lenders have to create more and more mortgages. So, they started to lower their standards and allowed loans to people with low incomes and low credits.
Predatory Lending practices - made loans without verifying income and offered absurd adjustable rate mortgages with payments people can afford to pay at first.
but these investments became less and less safe. the once low-risk investment became riskier and riskier and the U.S. price of homes increased.
the situation became a housing “bubble” where borrowers started defaulting because they can’t keep paying their expensive homes, thus they started defaulting, which put more houses back on the market for sale.
but since the housing prices were expensive, no one wanted to buy their houses, so the supply went up, demands went down, and home prices started collapsing.
big lenders became bankrupt, trading and credit markets froze, the stock market crashed, and eventually, they turned to the government for help.
What did the government do?
They enacted a program called TARP (Troubled Assets Relief Program), or the “bank bailout'“.
in 2010, the Dodd-Frank Law was created which prevents banks from doing too much risk investments and minimizes predatory lending.
Entry of China in the World Trade Organization (WTO)
In 2000, China was trying to become a member of the WTO.
China is already a rising trade market in the world before joining WTO
China wanted to join because it would allow them access to new trading partners and better rates with current ones, rasing prospects for improved living standards domestically and giving China a seat at the table in a globalizing world.
After China joined the WTO, the US saw some benefits and some downsides.
consumers can buy goods ar lower prices from China
corporations profited from increased access to China’s massive market
between 1999 and 2011, almost 6 million U.S. manufacturing jobs were lost because of the cheaper labor cost in China.
Meanwhile, China saw positive economic impact:
400 million Chinese people have been lifted from extreme poverty since 1999
china’s economy is not the second biggest in the world, and is eight times larger than in 2001
China exports almost 5 times more than in 2001, and it became the world’s largest exporting nation in 2009.
Since China has benefited greatly from the WTO, it has incurred criticism for carrying out certain market-distorting practices, and has been accused of cheating the system in various ways.
The allegations have manifested in official WTO disputes. Since 2001, the US has lodged 23 cases against China with allegations stating that China promotes its exports while remaining largely closed to foreign goods, making it more difficult for companies from the other countries to do business in China.
Most WTO Cases against China Fall into 3 Categories
Providing illegal state subsidies
Why? China wanted to become an exporting country.
How? The Chinese government incentivizes companies to export products through discounts, tax breaks, and cheap bank loans that are illegal under global trade rules.
Discriminating against foreign goods and suppliers
Why? China wants to prioritize domestic manufacturing
How? In one case, foreign automakers operating in China had to buy a certain amount of their components from local Chinese suppliers or pay more than double the standard import tax on their auto parts.
Controlling supply chains
Why? China favors exporting finished products, not intermediate goods that other countries can use to assemble products.
How? Through taxes and quotas, it has limited other countries’ access to Chinese minerals and other raw materials, giving Chinese companies an advantage.
Forced Technology Transfer in Chinese Trade Practices
U.S. officials allege that Chinese companies steal technological knowledge from foreign companies operating in China.
This issue rarely appears in WTO cases as it is not clear that there are direct violations of WTO rules.
One method of forced technology transfer is through joint-venture partnerships, where foreign companies are required to partner with local Chinese firms.
Key Points:
The treaties for these partnerships are negotiated outside the scope of the WTO and can require foreign firms to share technological secrets.
Many Chinese firms are state-owned or influenced by the government, meaning technology is effectively shared with the government.
Although some practices violate the spirit of WTO regulations, they do not violate explicit rules.
China has been known to undervalue its currency by 30%, which made its exports cheaper but lacks WTO provisions governing currency manipulation.
Current Situation:
China has been found guilty of WTO violations but has taken minimal steps to change this behavior while also ramping up policies that the U.S. finds problematic, like state subsidies.
China benefits from its current structure; its economy has grown significantly since 1978, and its middle class is expanding.
The WTO is becoming less relevant, with its rules not updated for over twenty-five years, which allows China to navigate the existing rules in its favor.
Impact of Mad Cow Disease on the global Meat Supply
Mad Cow Disease (Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE)) - is an incurable nuerodegenerative disease found commonly in cattles. It is caused by a misformed prion (brain protein) that affects other proteuns in the brain during protein folding causing holes in the brain, thus the “sponge-like” comparison.
The disease causes neuroligical and physical constraints to the infected, typically, changes in behavior, involuntary shakingof the head, and uncontrollable muscle movements.
This misformed prions are found to be from the feeds that the cattle are fed to. These feeds are made from leftover and grounded bones of other livestock including cows.
This approach of feeding bonemeal feeds is said to increase milk production on cows since during this time, milk is in demand.
However, since these disease among cattles is found to be contagious to human when an infected beef is consumed. These variant of BSE found in humans is called variant Cruetzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD). Its symptoms is somewhat similar to BSE with neurological disfuntions and muscle impairment. It takes years or even a decade for thr symptoms to show, thus, the first cases of these disease were not immediately discovered. Severe infections can cause coma and death to a human. Thus, authorities have started to order farmers to cull (kill) infected livestock and created new feeding policies.
Reasons for Russia's Invasion of Ukraine:
Geopolitical Ambitions: Russia aimed to reassert its influence in Eastern Europe and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, fearing a loss of strategic security.
Historical Claims: Russian leaders argue that Ukraine is historically part of Russia and express intent to protect the rights of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine.
Energy Control: Control over Ukraine allows Russia to maintain influence over energy supplies to Europe, as pipelines run through Ukrainian territory.
Crimea's Annexation: The annexation of Crimea in 2014 set a precedent for further military aggression, portraying an expansionist narrative.
Western Influence: Russia perceives Western involvement and support for Ukraine as a threat to its sphere of influence and seeks to counteract it.