Brexit Why Britain Chose to Leave The EU Small

Campaign Prologue

2016 British EU Referendum Background

  • In 2016, British politics saw the Remain and Leave camps battle over the vote for EU membership.

  • The referendum intended to determine the UK's future relationship with the EU and its global standing.

  • The campaign was marked, creating division and significantly influencing British politics.

  • The public anticipated the referendum after Christmas 2015; immigration was a key concern.

The Public Mood

  • Public Concerns: During end-year surveys, 63% identified immigration as the top issue, outpacing healthcare (39%) and the economy (33%).

  • Historical Anxiety: Public anxiety over immigration amplified after 2004 due to increased EU worker arrivals.

  • Record Migration: By end of 2015, net migration peaked at 336,000 - 69% deemed EU immigration "too high".

Political Context

  • Government's Position: Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservative Party enjoyed strong poll standings post-election with 39% support.

  • Opposition's Fragmentation: Labour, led by Jeremy Corbyn, struggled in polls recording under 30%.

  • Labour's Struggles: Corbyn's negative leadership ratings hindered Labour’s capacity to rally support against Brexit.

Competing Forces in the Campaign

  • Remain Camp: Organized under "Britain Stronger in Europe" with support from multiple political groups across the spectrum.

    • Key organizers had diverse political backgrounds, gaining massive coalition support.

  • Leave Camp (Vote Leave): Included a mix of Conservative defectors, traditional Euro-skeptics, and left-wing Eurosceptics.

    • They aimed to portray EU membership as anti-democratic and economically harmful.

Immigration Issues

  • Stirring Concerns: Heightened anxiety occurred due to historic terrorist attacks and a refugee crisis in 2015, creating a perceived linkage between immigration, economic issues, and security.

  • Public Perception of Immigration: Surveys showed widespread support for reducing immigration numbers from other EU countries.

EU Membership Renegotiated

Campaign Assumptions & Polling Insights

  • Initial Assumptions: Many assumed Remain would win due to strong polling support and traditional loyalty among the electorate.

  • Polling Analysis: Voiced concerns about the limitations of telephone vs. internet polling; the former indicated a stronger lead for Remain.

  • Voter Dynamics: Understanding past voter behavior in referendums indicated risk-averse tendencies towards maintaining the status quo.

Renegotiation Strategies

  • Cameron's Objectives: Sought a comprehensive renegotiation with the EU to secure concessions attractive to the electorate, particularly regarding immigration.

  • Demands Made: Main areas included an opt-out from "ever closer union" and restrictions on immigration, especially from newly joined EU states.

Public Response to Negotiation Outcomes

  • Negative Reception: Public perception met Cameron’s proposals largely with skepticism, viewing them as insufficient.

    • Polls showed that most voters were dissatisfied, indicating massive slip in support for Remain post-negotiation announcement.

Resulting Political Environment

  • Context of Uncertainty: As the campaign progressed, public sentiments strongly shifted against the perceived risks of immigration and lost sovereignty.

  • Competitive Narratives: Remainers focused on economic risks while Leavers engaged with national identity and immigration themes.

The People's Army

UKIP's Role

  • Grassroots Movement: Nigel Farage’s UKIP emerged as a powerful force pushing for Brexit, emphasis on reclaiming sovereignty resonated with discontented voter bases.

  • Party Dynamics: UKIP’s strategy targeted resentment towards elites and portrayed itself as an outsider party.

Profile of UKIP Supporters

  • Demographics: Typical members were predominantly:

    • Over 55 years old (72%)

    • Predominantly male (83%)

    • Low household incomes (42% under £30,000)

  • Membership Trends: Majority joined after 2010, signifying increased interest amid rising UKIP visibility in UK politics.

Political Orientation & Activism

  • Motivations for Joining: Motivated primarily by a sense of civic duty and the belief they could influence politics.

  • Level of Activity: Most members engaged in low-commitment support activities; active participation varied widely.

Voting to Leave

Voter Outcomes

  • On June 23, 2016, 51.9% opted to leave the EU, reflecting a complex mix of emotions, risk assessments, and political cues.

Factors Influencing the Vote

  • Emotional Attachments: Public feelings were unfavorably critical towards the EU leading to decisive Leave support.

    • Economic pessimism, national identity issues, and strong/skeptical leader images contributed.

  • Key Demographics: Older, less educated people in working-class roles showed significant support for Leave, viewed through interacting perceptions of identity, performance evaluations, and emotional responses to EU governance.

Economic & Immigration Themes

  • Financial Impact: While concerns were prominent regarding the economy, attitudes on immigration played a more significant role; many believed Brexit would facilitate control over immigration.

Leader Influence

  • Cues from Political Leaders: Divergence in support based on favorable or negative evaluations of key figures like Boris Johnson and Farage impacted decisions significantly.

Conclusion

  • The decision to leave encapsulated multivariate dynamics of public sentiment encompassing economic performance, identity, and the effectiveness of campaigns.

  • Future chapters will delve deeper into UKIP's electoral strategies and their ramifications on the Brexit decision.