Domestic Politics, Nuclear Proliferation, Norms

Leaders and Domestic Politics

foreign policy is created by politicians

What do politicians want?

• to remain in office

• to implement policy

Domestic Coalitions ( temporary partnerships/alliances)

all leaders need support

Coalition Politics 

Democratic Coalition:

• parliamentary democracies: multiparty coalitions ( coalitions that involve 3 or more party groups)

• presidential democracy: competing for centrist voters( people who are in the middle of liberal/conservative)

• Median voter theorem 

Median voter theorem

in majority-rule elections, the candidate closest to the middle voter’s preferences win

Authoritarian Coalitions

depends on type of authoritarian regime

• party state: party elites — a single ruling party dominates gov & top party holds power

• personalist dictatorship: ruling family — Ruling family — one leader dominates the state

• military dictatorship: generals — military governs the country

How can leaders use foreign policy to keep their coalition happy?

small/large coalitions 

Small coalition

large, private, specific payoffs

• policies might be net harmful

• but costs/benefits are more targeted

large coalition 

public goods 

• cannot narrowly target benefits

• but can implement policies likely to benefit supporters

Logrolling

“trading favors” among groups within coalition

• each group gets its way on crucial issue..

• but makes concession ( compromises) on other issues 

• 2nd best outcome for each 

German Coalition of “Iron and Rye”

Agricultural/industrial logrolling pre-ww1

• alliance between industrialists (iron) and agrarian elites ( rye) in the late 19th century ceremony to support tariffs and conservative protectionist policies 

• “Junker”— ( aristocrat military elite) land owners: tariffs & territorial expansion

• industry: large navy, colonial expansion

• end result: over-expansion, encirclement 

Diversionary War - Does conflict increase a leader’s support? Would leaders use conflict to increase their support at home? 

using an external conflict to divert attention from internal problems 

Falkland Islands War 

• Argentina invaded Falkland Island, argentina people praised their military when a week before they were protesting against it 

 

Russo-Japanese War

• before the war Russia faced economic trouble, worker strikes and social unrest

• Tsar thought a win against Japan would make things better but it backfired 

WW1

Audience Costs - can domestic politics be used to make credible commitments abroad? 

• public commitments 

• backing down interpreted as recklessness, incompetence

• increases costs of violating commitments ( tying hands) 

Domestic Consequences of foreign policy failure: what happens if you loose coalition support? 

• peaceful departure from office

• persecution— leaders may targeting groups they suspect to be disloyal or punish potential rivals to scare others into obedience 

The Nuclear Revolution

instant guarantee against large scale attack 

• credibility of “direct” deterrence 

• but technically challenging - costly, making them are hard

• threaten to radically increase the chance of war

Treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT)

Negotiated 1965-68, took effect 1970

Nuclear Weapons States

• legitimized possessions 

• requirement to “work toward” disarmament 

• must assist others with civilian programs 

Non-Nuclear Weapon States

• prohibits acquisition 

• entitled to assistance with civilian programs 

• must submit to inspections 

Subsequent Proliferation - four cases

• Israel: post -1967 (undeclared)

• India: first test 1947, weaponized 1998

• Pakistan: 1988 test

• North Korea: 1994 NPT withdrawl, 2006 test 

Reversals

Voluntarily:

South Africa,

Ukraine ( held on to their weapons until something happened), Kazakhistan, Belarus — soviet successors

Involuntarily:

Iraq

Nuclear Latency

states that don’t have but could quickly develop nukes

• Japan, South Korea: importance of US security guarantees

• Iran: ongoing dispute over enrichment program

• Saudi Arabia: pursuing US assistance

How has nonproliferation regime been so effective?

• Realism: security is all states’ key interest

• nukes provide near-total security

• so why doesn’t everyone have them?

Obstacles of everyone having nuclear weapons:

technical

• rare, dangerous materials 

• difficult technology

political

• preventive incentives ( delayed power shift)

• great power opposition-risk of cascade effects, economic/political punishment

• IAEA monitoring

Limited Utility - what nukes aren’t good for

ineffective for compellence

• can’t make credible threats to influence a country to do something 

ineffective for deterring lower-level actions

prestige or pariah?

North Korea - how did it successfully proliferate

conventional deterrence