Global changes final cards

4 types of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

1. globalization

2.regionalization

3. economic

4. environmental

first RCP goal? second (now)? worst case scenario?

first goal: 2.6 but we passed it

second goal: 4.5

worst case scenario: 8.5

how do we evaluate the global climate now? by what factors?

with biogeochemical cycles and carbon

what is modeling used for in terms of climate change? what is the coupled general circulation models? factors in these models? (7)

- predicting future climate change

- coupled general circulation models: combine effects of atmosphere and ocean on climate

- factors:

1. sunlight

2. clouds

3. land masses

4. feedback loops

5. oceans and their currents

6. greenhouse gases

7. pollutants

%s of likely vs. most likely projections?

- likely: 66% - 89%

- most likely: 90% - 99%

what is the most accurate climate model based on?

anthropogenic contributions from the past

what is an effect of volcano eruptions?

cools the surrounding area for generally 1 - 2 yrs

greenhouse gas emissions - gas names

greenhouse gas names: CO2, CH4, N2O increasing

- what is the prediction of very likely possibilities of temp rise by 2100?

- where are temps the highest? (3 places)

- is temp increase equal everywhere? why do poles have high temps?

increase by 2.4 - 5.4 degrees C

1. land

2. interiors

3. poles

- temp increase isn't equal everywhere

- the poles get high temps bc of the ice melting and more open ocean (dark) absorbing solar radiation

where are temps not the highest in the future?

equator

what 2 temps do models factor in?

hot and cold

how long can volcano eruptions cool a region?

for 1 - 2 yrs

solar irradiance

understanding solar changes

natural aerosols

water vapor, dust, smoke, and soot

what type of feedback can particles create? (2)

positive and negative feedbacks

5 different feedbacks?

1. clouds

2. forest greening

3. precipitation

4. ice albedo

5. water vapor

4 events that can be tipping points?

1. ocean circulation

2. sea level rise

3. ice loss

4. rapid methane release

- what Celsius temps is the global temp very likely to change from and to? (by 2100) ]

- where are temps the highest? (3)

- are temp increases equal everywhere?

2.4°C - 5.4°C

- temps are highest on land, interiors, and poles

- temp increases are NOT equal everywhere, specifically unequal at the poles (more ice melting, more dark ocean absorbing solar radiation)

economic consequence of higher temps? result of lower temps?

1. higher temps \= more money lost bc of more sick people

2. lower temps \= less money lost bc of less sick people

what continent doesn't have a lot of data and there are holes in their research? why?

antarctica bc of not a lot of people there

is climate change always negative? what can it increase?

- no climate change isn't always negative bc it can increase global food production

carbon ppm rn? 1880? how much carbon ppm was added per year in 2015/2016? from developed or developing countries?

- now: 420 ppm

- 1880: 280 ppm

- 3 carbon ppm/yr added to atmosphere (from mostly developing countries)

what about the carbon cycles effects CO2 levels?

an imbalance of the carbon cycle effects CO2 levels

which produces more CO2 gt: terrestrial or fossil fuel?

- what does the organic carbon cycle have to do with this and if the cycle was changed?

fossil fuel emissions are small relative to fluxes in the terrestrial organic carbon cycle means that imbalances in the organic carbon cycle (e.g., deforestation, reforestation) can have a substantial effect on atmospheric CO2 levels

what 2 environmental issues can change feedback loops?

1. land use

2. deforestation

how much CO2 goes into the oceans? atmosphere?

- oceans: 50%

- atmosphere: 50%

how much has atmospheric CO2 changed (number of times increased)?

what is the increase by °C?

- atmospheric CO2 has increased by 8x

- increases from 6 - 15 degrees C

with a 2x increase of CO2, what is the increase of degrees C?

2-5 degrees C of warming

is proactive policy categorized as mitigation or adaptation? is reactive policy categorized as mitigation or adaptation? what do both mitigation/adaptation proactive/reactive do to the public?

- proactive policy is mitigation

- reactive policy is adaptation

- both mitigation/adaptation proactive/reactive alleviate public fear

cost-benefit analysis: DICE model

this model weighs the economic damages with cost mitigation used by the EPA

- Nordhaus used the DICE model in 1992

what 2 things contribute to the discount rate?

1. growth discounting (saving and investing)

2. time preference/inherent discounting (wanting money in present bc of inflation in future)

simple example of growth discounting?

buying a stock and using that newly earned money in the future

- Instead of spending $10,000 on new windows for their house and saving $100/year off their energy usage. The owners purchased Apple stock with the initial $10,000 and over 10 years the value increased to $12,000

critiques on growth discounting? critiques on time preference/inherent discounting?

- critiques on growth discounting: more money in future, so it's the future problem

- critiques on time preference/inherent discounting: people want their money now to have and spend

discount rate according to Nordhaus? how does Nordhaus justify catastrophic events?

3% per year (Nordhaus assumed a 3% discount rate)

- he says that catastrophic events will be minimal in 200 yrs bc of the money and tech we will have to fix it

what does higher consumption mean with marginal utility? what is the relationship of a high discount rate with benefits? (increase or decrease)

more consumption \= the more you get, the less you want (marginal utility)

- high discount rate decreases benefits

factors in DICE model? (3) what happens to the problems?

1. population growth

2. new technology

3. climate change

- the problems fix themselves

is 3% (discount rate) optimistic or pessimistic? what about 1.4%?

- 3% is optimistic

- 1.4% is pessimistic

what does stern say about CO2 emissions and money for today?

stern says we need to cut back on CO2 hard and fast NOW and spend money NOW

why did the US withdraw from the Kyoto protocol?

bc we thought it wouldn't prevent anything and it was stunting the US economic growth

intergenerational equity: definition and when we need to invest money?

meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs

- invest more money now

in basic economic discounting, at a 5% rate, a benefit of $100 realized 2 years from now will be what?

$90.70

what is the relationship with discount rates and the benefits of actions designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? (positive or negative)

in terms of future discounting, using a high discount rate decreases the assessed benefits of actions designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions - negative correlation

stern plan tax on carbon ($/ton)? what it rose to ($/ton)? tax on gas? (cents/ton)

the Stern plan stated that carbon would be initially taxed at $100/ton and rise to $950/ton over 200 years, including a 30¢/gal tax on gasoline

what year does RCP 8.5 peaks at ?

the RCP 8.5 states emissions peak around 2100 and then decline

what year does RCP 6 peak at?

the RCP 6 states emissions peak around 2080 and then decline

how does the Stern Review compare to the Nordhaus model?

Stern recommended much higher discount rates which concluded future cost of damages to be much higher than Nordhaus - I think bc of inflation