Power and Borders

when was unification of east and west germnay

1990

division of Yugoslavia into how many countries in what year

1990- 6

collapse of USSR, how many new countries formed

1991- 15 new countries

when was the principle of sovereignty established , then confirmed in ?

1648- treaty of Westphalia,

re-establsihed in 1945 UN charter

in 1948, it was decided that countries can challenege sovereignty on condition of

genocide

when was responsibility to protect initiated, and following what

Rwandan genocide, furthered erosion of sovereignty and stated can intervene in war crimes, crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing

2001

how many criteria have to be met for R2P to be invoked

6

3 elements of R2P

prevent, react, rebuild

who must approve military intervention for r2p

UN security council- Russia, China, France, UK, USA

sovereignty is conditional to human rights

norms

moral principles, customs, and ways of life which are universally acknowledged, incl in international law

article 2 of UN charter

international norm that all states has soveriegn equality

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intervention

action of x group to end violation of human rights

necessary in some circumstances -- controversial as undermine sovereignty

R2P and intervention challeneg what principle

every state has equal right to self-govern

moral questions over motives of intervention and how to measure success of interventions

Fragile States Index measures what

stability of a state-- using data from 12 indicators

where does Ukraine rate on FSI

92nd

(now 18th)

where does SS rate on FSI

3rd

Arbitrage definition

when TNC threaton to close down operations in a country to pressure government

what % of GDP in Nigeria is from oil

73%

golden arches theory of conflict prevention

developed countries (with a maccies) wont enter into conflict with each other because of the economic ramifications

in what year was Apples GDP more than Portugal

2017

what is exclusive competence

the Eu’s ability to implement laws over member countries, exercise exclusive agency over certain matters- e.g. fishing quotas and laws

when did Ukraine get independence from Russia

1991

what is the GDP/Capita in Ukraine

4800 USD- 2021

in 1945, Ukraine became a founding member of?

UN

in what year did russia transfer crimea to Ukraine as a goodwill gesture

1954

in what year did Ukraine gain independence from Russia

1990

when did the Euromaiden protests start

21 november 2013

what sparked the euromaiden protests

president Yanukovych’s decision to not sign EU- Ukraine govenmrnet charter, then became general unrest over governmnetal corruption, russian and oligarchal influence

where was the protest focused

independence square, Kyiv

in late february 2014-- what happened

violent clashes with police-- nearly 100 die and 13 officers

what did the feb 2014 conflict lead to

revolution of dignity- government fled and interim government installed

what does mackinders heartland theory state

need to control eastern europe and the heartland to control world island, from here you control the world

what date did russian armed forces invade crimea

20 February 2014 - invade and seize control of crimea

effectively-- fears that demonstrations against their influence would bar them from sevastopol and warm water ports

what did the city council of crimea declare in repsosne to invasion

‘universally declared’ they wished to join russian federation

what date did the referndum in crimea take palce, how mnay voted pro

16 march 2014- 96%

how many UN member states recognise crimea

10

in which 2 regions of Ukraine were separatist uprisings declared

Donetsk and Luhansk- armed men declared themselves as local militia and seized gov’t buildings, held unconsititutional referendums

what did the 2014 Geneva pact achieve

talks between EU, Russia, Ukraine, USA- resulted in joint diplomatic statement that all unlawful militias should lay down their arms and vacate seized government buildings

who won the presidential election in May 2014 Ukraine- what did he vow

Petro Poroshenko- continue military operations to end armed insurgency

how many killed in crimea and separatist campaigns

more than 9000

what was ratified in late 2014

Ukraine-EU association agreement

represents a decisive step toward EU membership

in 2015, where was s ummit held which negotiated a ceasefire with separatist troops

Belarus -- included withdrawal of heavy weaponry

impacts of war on russians - sanctions

cost russia 100bn USD- 4.2% of GDP

only 39% believed annexation caused more good than bad

impacts on crimeans- economic

loss of trade with Ukraine, changing nationality, however huge subsidies from Russia to invest in infrastructure- e.g. new bridges, to ensure that they remained pro-annexation

impacts of annexation elsewhere- how many fighters in east, how many displaced, how many dead and what % contraction in Ukraine economy

100,000 fighters still in east, 1.5million displaced, 10k dead, up to 9.8% contraction in Ukraine economy

impacts on ukraines culture

move towards russian culture in East

impact on political in Ukraine

new poltiical allegiance to russia in eastern ukraine, more polticial instability, suspicion… crimea now politically russian, G8-G7

impact of annexation on natural environment in Ukraine

eastern region undersupplied with drinkable water, deterioration of sewage system has led to largescale pollution

socio-economic impacts on Ukraine

safety concerns-- less attractive to invest in. INdustrial production down 60-80% in Donetsk-Luhansk

impact on demographic in Ukraine

1\.5 million internally displaced, large parts of donbas depopulated, loss of demographic/ population to russia, people moved abroad

impact of annexation on Ukraine built environment

over 2000 houses damaged, 53 bridges and 45 roads destroyed

what did 2 western studies show about crimea

russian and ukranian crimeans overwhelmingly in favour of annexation, including ethnic minority Tartars- 96% support

what % of crimeans are ‘ethnically russian’

58%

what has been the globsl conequence on internaitonal law die to annexation

most of world has not taken side of ukraine-- rather see it as a local power squabble. Mnay asian countries more concerned by western intervention than russian intervention, as such has led to cosying up of asian poltiicans to Putin

undermined international norms on sovereignty and invasions

consequences on Middle East and North Africa

europeans looking to switch energy sources away from russia- led to incresed demand from ME-NA

impact on EU

increased political unity, however may be short lived…. also suffered from their own sanctions

evaluation of UN intervention in crimea-- what did they declare, and what was the outcome of vote

declared referendum invalid, 100-11, however 58 abstentions

since Russia is on permananent security council- blocked further action

Ukraine has latterly filed against russia for ‘acts of terrorism’- 2017

one fo most powerful organisations on planet, however the mandate of their declaration severely weakened by abstentions, had little tangible effect for avg russian/crimean

good propaganda but didnt get crimea back

evaluation of EU intervention in Ukraine… how mnay poeple had assets frozen

cancel summit-- uninvite russia from g8 and sanctions

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sanctions hurt regular poeple and not government as such.

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150 poeple and 37 entities-- might have an effect due to oligarchal government

EU firms banned from investing in Crimea

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did lead to collapse of russian ruble, also caused 100bn GDP in damage to EU -- ordinary peopel suffering

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intervention of CrimeaSOS-- evaluation

small NGO, promote the de-occupation of Crimea and reintegration

provide emergency assistance to IDPs, offer legal advice and support family of heavenly 100

have 7000 folowers

however limited wider political impact and more important on local level and socially

intervention evaluation- NATO

delivered weapons and non-lethal goods to ukraine

deployed troops on border country with russia

however this might have escalated conflicts, tricky to measure any tangible effects, may have reduced pressure on govenrmnet however may equally have been wasted- in times of conflict governments lack effective mechanisms to dispense aid

intervention evaluation- USA

gave 600million USD ot ukraine -- weapons and training

non intervention strategy

is 600 mill even that much-- easily wasted and siphoned off

non-intervention- weak

Intervention- OSCE , Minsk Protocol

2014, signed by Russia, Ukraine, SOnetsk and Luhansk-- agree to stop war in Donbass region

immediate ceasefire, release of hostages

withdrawal of illegal arms groups

however-- ceasefire violations continue

reduction in fighting, but collapsed in 2015 and by 2022 war starts

when did SS gain independence from north

July 2011-- provoked by immesnse inequality between south and north

2014 oil collapse effect on SS

devastating as economy is most dependent on oil in the world

2005--

CPA signed, ends guerilla warfare which had lasted 20 years

jan 2011, what % vote independence from north

99%

july 2011

official independence

Heglig crisis- what and when was it

fighting breaks out over oil rich Abyeu region-- 2012

2013-- what happens

fighitng breaks out between VP and President of SS

P fires VP, citing a coup,

a year after govenrmnet breaks down-- how many IDPs in SS

2\.2 million

in 2015-- IGAD leads what?

renewed peace talks, however break down a year later

2018

renewed bid to end civil war-- enfs in power sharing

however , 2021

kiir dissolves parliament

President and vice president of SS names

Salva Kiir- Dinka, president

Machar- Nuer, Vice President

UN involement in south sudan -- why did htey intervene

responsibility to protect- within 10 days of conflict erupting, R2P ministers flagged concerns about war crimes

what was UNMISS

UN mission in SS, aims to protect civilians, create conditions for humanitarian assistance, support peace and progress, monitor and investigate human rights

how many UN personnel auhtoirised in 2011

11000

why did number of UN personnel in SS increase in 2013

sharply, as Kiir accuses VP Machar of coup--

what number of UN personnel approved for SS in 2013, and how many actually went

19000 c. approved, only 13,000 c. went

increased again after 2016 battle of Juba

how many killed in SS

400,000

how many fled their homes in SS

3million

how many SS in POC camps

210,000

at the camp in Malakal, life expectancy for Nuer men who leave is ?

30 minutes

why did the british arrive at the camp in Malakal in 2016

had been a breach, which led to 100s of deaths. British bring defence/transport and engineering expertise-- construct a hospital for staff, wheereas before patrols had to be limited because soldiers would have to be airlifted to nearest hospitals if injured

how many children recruited to fight in war in SS

17,000

how mcuh was given in aid by international community to SS

4billion GDP

role if IGAD in global governance

led peace talks between warring sides since early 2014

ceasefire in January 2015

however fighting continues

struggles to implement auhtoirty and had to fall back on clout of others-- e.g. US, EU, UN, UK for added auhtority

still regional rivalries and the peace process was very top-down

peace process hasnt filtered down to regulars

role of south sudanese gov’t in global governance

signed peace treaties in 2015, it was always going to be a struggle for a new country to be stable

signed conventions against torture and african charter on human right, and charters against discrimination against women

improves every year on FSI, however still 3rd

ultimate failure to protect citizens and resorted to military not political solutions

instigated the war in the first place??????

role of ugandan government in global governance

have always been involved in SS beyond just their role as a UN nation state

have supplied SS gov’t with troops against rebels

however-- acting in self interest….. 1) because they need security as a neighbouring state, are top 3 im/export country of SS 2) will expect political favours back if they help now 3) have been providing weapons to both sides- i.e. rebels and government -- trynig to keep SS weak so they get best terms of trade

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have made money of their neighbour by sellign weapons

role of an NGO- Oxfam

have reached more than 860k people, providing monthly food drops and distributions, training and tools for the future-- for example, have provided seeds for 300k poeple which secures future livelihood

trying to eliminate gender inequality and violence

however 115 aid workers killed since 2013-- not protecting their own staff well enough

foreign TNC involvement in SS… what % of gov’t revenue comes from oil

98%, over 100million USD unnaccounted for -- likely siphones off by corrupt gov’t officials

elite government officials have shares in oil companies- thus in their best interest to keep them profitable

in 2013-- fighting led to shut down of oil industry, govenrment had to take out loans agaisnt sutch and chinese oil companies-- didnt have the money to pay for it so paying in future oil supplies-- tied aid sort of??? undermines future govenrmnet/sovereignty

oil MNCs give Machar a helicopter to reach his troops-- disseminates hate messages to rally troops --- thus are MNCs complicit in war crimes

NET WINNERS-- get best deals when ss is weak and unstable

which artciles of the UN charer set out intervention

41 and 42

41- economic

42- miliitary

why is sevastopol so important

home to balck sea fleet- russian navy int he black sea and mediterranean

ideal base - when it was in USSR- easy, but since it has left sevastopol base has been leased

when was treaty for the incorporation of the republic of crimea and sevastopol to russia sifned between russia and republic of crmiea

18 march 2014

how mcuh was spent on the 19km bridge linking peninsula to mainland russia

3\.7bn USD

estimate direct losses in Donetsk and Luhansk regions

13\.5billion USD in 2018

how many troops did NATO deploy on border

30,000 on 6 borders

argument showing that minsk protocol was v bad

not a single provision fully implemented

february 2016- un troops at malakal

fail to protect camp- leads to hundreds of deaths, including 2 aid workers

14,000 UN staff cover a population of

12million people- area the same size as france