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Objective of a profit-maximizing algorithm for an attention-based business model
Maximizing engagement (e.g. clicks, shares)
Why does false information spread faster than facts?
Novelty hypothesis – information is new and surprising and therefore more likely to be shared
Business model
The strategy a business enacts to make a profit that reflects how an organization creates, delivers and captures value
Key components of business models
What products / services does the business sell?
Who pays for these products / services?
How does the business produce the products / services?
Software development production cost structure
Cost depends on the complexity of the software, not on the number of people who use it
Customer service in the tech industry is very minimal
Cost of computing and data storage has dropped precipitously
Social media “product”
Impressions
Social media “producers”
Social media platforms
Social media “consumers”
Businesses and other entities who pay for impressions on their content
Shaky assumptions for attention markets
Consumers are rational and self-interested
Consumers have fixed preferences
There is perfect competition with no economies of scale and no barriers to entry
Individuals have full, symmetric information
Private and social costs and benefits are equal
Supply of attention
Increases as people’s times on the platform increases
What does a supply of attention create financial incentive for?
Addictive platforms
Rabbit hole content
User data to tailor algorithm to increase engagement
Characteristics of information asymmetries for digital platforms
Users of the platforms don’t know what information is being collected and how it’ll be used
Opens up opportunities for exploitation
Privacy policies are long and vague and don’t allow for fully informed consent to the exchange
Demand for attention
Increases with more specific ad targeting and better predictions of buying habits
Advertisers will pay more for “eyes on ads” if those eyes are from customers who are likely to buy
Natural monopoly
Market where the average cost of production declines as more output is produced
Natural monopoly classic example
Electricity utilities
Natural monopoly modern example
Digital platforms
Natural monopolies and economic welfare
Natural monopolies do not maximize “economic welfare” without regulation
Software development production cost structure
Cost depends on the complexity (and R&D) of the software, not (much) on the number of people who use it
Network effects
The more users that are on a platform, the more valuable the platform is for users
Demand-side economies of scale
Network effects reinforce the tendency of the market to move naturally to a monopoly
Data broker market regulation - state laws
Vermont passed a law regarding data brokers in 2018, Oregon and Texas followed in 2023
California has the most comprehensive data broker law (passed in 2023)
Data broker market regulation - federal laws
U.S. Congress passed Protecting Americans’ Data from Foreign Adversaries Act in 2024 – prevents data brokers from selling data to foreign adversaries.
U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) were extending regulation and on data brokers in late 2024 and early 2025, but priorities have shifted.
Downsides of regulation
Increases costs of doing business
Creates barriers to entry (for new companies to enter the market)
Can limit hiring
Can reduce economic growth
Regulatory capture
When a government agency, meant to serve the public's interest, starts acting in the interests of the industry it is supposed to regulate
Can occur when businesses create close relationships with regulators through lobbyists, lawyers, and consultants
Revolving door
Tendency of policy experts to switch jobs between public service regulatory roles and policy positions in businesses
Regulation is unnecessary if:
Consumers can easily assess and understand product / service quality
Businesses are seeking repeat customers
The market is competitive in the absence of regulations
How does competition affect regulation?
It allows consumers to regulate business practices by patronizing businesses with the best practices
Creates pressure on businesses to cater to consumer needs and avoid damaging their reputation with bad or unethical practices
Regulation of restaurants - what is the product?
Food
Regulation of restaurants - what are the (conflicting) market pressures?
Pushes for stronger food safety practice to avoid food poisoning in customers
Pushes for cutting corners that reduce cost, but also may reduce food safety
Regulation of data brokers - what is the product?
Personal data
Regulation of data brokers - what are the market pressures?
Pushes for less privacy and less individual control of data about them for both customers and data brokers
Market failures and regulation
Markets with asymmetrical information
Markets where people tend to make non-rational choices
Markets with natural monopolies that prevent competition
Markets with externalities that negatively impact people and entities who are neither the buyer, nor the seller
What causes asymmetrical information in data collection and use?
Lack of transparency in data collection and use
Carpenter vs United States
Government argued that cellphone users voluntarily reveal their personal information so they cannot expect businesses to hide that information from the government
Decision was made that law enforcement must get a search warrant to request location data from cellphone providers in 2018
Data broker loophole
The government does not need a search warrant to buy location (or other) data from data brokers
Types of data brokers
Financial information brokers
Risk mitigation brokers
Marketing and advertising brokers
People search brokers
Personal health brokers
Financial information brokers
Credit reporting agencies (e.g. Experian Equifax, Transunion), many also sell purchasing data from credit cards
Risk mitigation brokers
Verify identities, look for fraudulent transactions, employment / tenant screening
Marketing and advertising brokers
Data for targeted marketing
People search brokers
Sells access to data about specific people to anyone who will pay for it
Personal health brokers
Sell consumers’ health data to pharmaceutical and health insurance companies
Sources of data
Government sources
Commercial sources
Publicly available sources
Web tracking
Mobile tracking
Government sources examples
US Postal Service
Property records
Court filings
Criminal convictions
Professional and recreational licenses
Divorce records
Birth certificates
Bankruptcy records
Voter registration information
Vehicle registration records
Commercial sources examples
Purchase history
Warranty registration
Credit information
Loyalty card data
Publicly available sources examples
Social media profiles
Forum posts
Media reports
Business listings
Telephone books
Web tracking examples
Cookies
First-party cookies (tracking that allows the website to remember your past activity on its own site)
Third-party cookies (tracks your online activity for online ad networks and aggregators)
The right to privacy
Published by Brandeis and Warren in the Harvard Law Review in 1890
Response to invasive press and invention of photography
Defines privacy as a “fundamental right” and calls for legal protections
Federal data privacy laws
Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA)
Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act (FERPA)
Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA)
Children’s Online Privacy Act (COPPA)
Gramm-Leach-Billey Act (GLBA)
Protecting Americans’ Data from Foreign Adversaries Act (PADFAA)
Electronic Communications Privacy Act (ECPA)
Video Privacy Protection Act (VPPA)
Unfair and Deceptive Acts and Practices (UDAP)
Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA)
Established in 1970
Specific to credit reports, has had substantial updates
Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act (FERPA)
Established in 1974
Protects students’ educational records
Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA)
Established in 1996
Regulates how healthcare providers and insurers use, protect and share health data
Does not cover health data held by non-covered entities (e.g. health apps)
Children’s Online Privacy Act (COPPA)
Established in 2000
Puts limits on data collection for children under 13
Gramm-Leach-Billey Act (GLBA)
Established in 1999
Financial service providers must explain how they use data
Allows customers to opt out
Protecting Americans’ Data from Foreign Adversaries Act (PADFAA)
Established in 2024
Prohibits data brokers from selling sensitive data to adversarial nations
Electronic Communications Privacy Act (ECPA)
Established in 1986
Rules for government wiretaps of phones
Does not cover many new types of data
Video Privacy Protection Act (VPPA)
Established in 1988
No one can access your VHS rental history
Does not cover streaming services
Areas of basic data privacy protections
Data collection and sharing
Consent (opt-in vs. opt-out)
Right to access, correct, delete data
Data minimization
Non-discrimination
Health data
AI
EU GDPR
General Data Protection Regulation
EU law that protects personal data and gives individuals greater control over their data
EU GDPR data protection principles
Lawfulness, fairness and transparency
Purpose limitation
Data minimization
Accuracy
Storage limitations
Integrity and confidentiality
Accountability
Penalty for violating EU GDPR
Up to 20 million Euros, or 4% of previous year’s global annual turnover
Data brokers
Business / unit / units of a business, separately or together, that knowingly collects and sells or licenses to third parties the brokered personal information of a consumer with whom the business does not have a direct relationship
Synergies
Synergies in the problem imply synergies in the solution
Three generator functions of existential risk
Rivalrous dynamics
Degrading foundations (that which sustains us and enables us to solve problems)
Exponential technology
Private goods
Rival and excludable
Examples: Ice cream, cheese, houses, cars
Common resources
Rival and non-excludable
Examples: Fresh water, fish, timber, pasture
Club goods
Non-rival and excludable
Examples: Cable TV, cinemas, WiFi, tollroads
Public goods
Non-rival and non-excludable
Examples: Fresh air, knowledge, national defense
What does it mean when a good is excludable?
It is possible (and practical) to prevent people from using it if they haven't paid for it
What does it mean when a good is rival?
A product where use by one person prevents or impairs another person from using it
Rivalrous dynamics
Situations characterized as conflicts that tend to produce a winner and a loser
If you don’t want to lose, you have to pay to win
Tragedy of the Commons
If we don’t do it, someone else will
Arms race
Even if I would prefer not to escalate the conflict, if I don’t improve my offensive / defenses and my competitor does, then I will lose
Degrading foundations
Civilization depends on the natural world and the ability of humans to cooperate to solve problems
How does Daniel Schmachtenberger refer to degrading foundations?
“The subsuming of our substrate”
Which foundations are being degraded?
Natural resources
Human ingenuity
Social trust
Problem-solving
What degrades natural resources?
Open-loop economies
What degrades human ingenuity?
Mindless distractions and attention degradation
What degrades social trust?
Polarization
What degrades problem-solving?
Lack of a shared reality
Epistemology
How we know what we know
Examples of degrading epistemic capacity
Polarized news sources
Fake news
Deepfakes
AI chatbots that validate and reflect your own views
How is exponential technology a problem?
Technology develops at an exponential rate, while policy and regulation is linear (at best)
Attractor states
A “default pattern” that a system tends to fall into, even if it gets disturbed, as it’s where the system naturally wants to go or stay
Current direction of attractor states
Oppression
Chaos
Alternative attractor state
Cooperative civil society
Culture that has an emergent wisdom to manage new technology (“Cultural enlightenment”)
With rights and no responsibilities
Tyranny and entitlement
With responsibilities and no rights
Servitude
With responsibilities and rights
Civil societies
No responsibilities and no rights
Chaos
What is the objective of a profit-maximizing algorithm for an attention-based business model?
Maximizing time-on-site and engagement
The meta-problem
Drivers of existential risk
Antidote to Tragedy of the Commons
Cooperative management
Evolutionary theory
The rapid evolution of humans over the past few millennia has occurred not in our genes, but in our culture
The Ted Lasso Effect
Cooperation on the group vs. on the individual level
Elinor Ostrom’s core design principles
A strong sense of identity and purpose and clear group boundaries
What you get must be proportional to what you give
Fair and inclusive decision-making
Monitoring and accountability to enforce agreed upon behaviors
Rewards for good and punishments for bad behavior
Fast and fair conflict resolution
Local autonomy
Nested tiers of governance and appropriate relations with other groups that reflect the same core design principles
Solutions in progress
General data protection
New focus on data protection and digital regulation / governance in the US
Cultural change