are social factors (class, age, gender, ethnicity) still important in determining the results of elections? which one is most important?

a03

social factors are generally in decline — the exception is age

theme 1

class

weak 1

paul pulzer “class is the basis of British party politics”

traditional (1945-79) class has been key (A,B,C1,C2,D,E)

• traditionally ABC1 used to vote conservative and C2DE Labour

• 1922-1974, over 50% of ABC1 voted conservative

strong 1

since 1979, class has been less important

• thatcher achieved 9% DE swing as inflation control and tackling trade unions were popular among the working class

partisan dealignment (red wall 1979)

• red wall fell in 2019 — vote on issues that are relevant rather than party loyalty eg. Blyth Valley voted conservative

class dealignment

• occupations in society have changed, people are less likely to associate themselves with 1 specific class

theme 2

ethnicity

weak 2

traditionally, ethnicity has been an indicator

• traditionally white people voted conservative as more likely to be higher class

• 2019, 64% of BAME voted Labour

strong 2

ethnicity has been based on class, which is in decline

• now more of a variety, less likely to vote due to ethnicity

theme 3

age

weak 3

traditionally, age is a factor

• the youth vote labour → 2019: 56% (18-24) Lab + 57% (60-69) Cons

2017 YouthQuake

• consistent correlation with the youth voting labour and older generations voting conservative

• - young people voted overwhelmingly for Corbyn in May, leading to a minority government

strong 3

but this has been driven by other factors

• exposure, understanding, global warming impacting the youth more, …

social media has galvanised the youth vote

• media acts as an opinion leader eg. taylor swift promoting liberal ideas or billie eilish being pro-abortion